Super League
Zürich - Winterthur
02/11/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.4
1.6
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
25%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
45%
Under 3.5
55%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Extremely weak away defense: Winterthur concedes an average of 4.25 goals away from home, giving Zürich clear advantages in attack
- Historical dominance: Zürich is unbeaten in the last five head-to-head duels, with a goal difference of 11:4
- Defensive vulnerability of both teams: Both sides have a high rate of conceded goals and matches with over 2.5 goals are common, suggesting an open game
Risk Factors
- Critical absences for Zürich: With only 55% of their goal-scoring threat available, the home team is missing key offensive players like Matthias Phaëton, weakening their predicted favorite status
- Poor form of Zürich: Despite being the favorite, Zürich has lost its last three games and is winless in five matches
- Potential fatigue: Zürich has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could be a physical disadvantage
Overview
Zürich (9th place, 25 points) host Winterthur (12th place, 14 points) at Stadion Letzigrund
Super League match on February 11, 2026, 8:30 PM
A clash in the lower third of the table where both teams want to collect important points against relegation
The mathematical analysis favors Zürich with a 44% win probability
Form
Zürich form (all competitions): LDLLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)
The home team is in poor form and has lost their last three matches
Winterthur form (all competitions): LLLWD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
The guests have recently shown a slight upward trend with a win and a draw
Zürich's league form is LDWLW, while Winterthur's is LDLDL
Statistics
Zürich scores an average of 1.43 goals per game but also concedes 1.96 goals
Winterthur has one of the weakest defenses in the league, conceding 2.64 goals per game
Winterthur is particularly vulnerable away, conceding an average of 4.25 goals per game
For both teams, most of their season games have seen over 2.5 goals (Zürich 17/23, Winterthur 18/22)
Head-to-Head
Zürich is unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head encounters
Zürich won 3 of the matches, while 2 ended in a draw
The goal difference of 11:4 clearly favors the home team
The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw
Key Players
For Zürich, Philippe Paulin Keny is a key player in attack with 8 season goals
Bledian Krasniqi is the home team's most important creator with 5 assists
For Winterthur, Andrin Hunziker is the most dangerous attacker with 8 season goals
Théo Golliard has also established himself as an important offensive player with 3 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Silas Huber is in goal for Zürich
The team has kept one clean sheet so far this season
Stefanos Kapino is the goalkeeper for Winterthur
Winterthur is still waiting for their first clean sheet of the season
Influences
Stadion Letzigrund has recently been the scene of high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals per match in the last five encounters
Both teams scored in 100% of these games
Zürich has a solid home record (1.46 goals per game), while Winterthur's away weakness is blatant (4.25 goals conceded per game)