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Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - Werder Bremen

08/30/2026, 01:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Werder Bremen
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SFWB

SC Freiburg

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-1.72
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.26
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Johan Manzambi not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Philipp Treu on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Werder Bremen

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.68
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Jens Stage not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
Romano Schmid not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
Yukinari Sugawara not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Jovan Milosevic not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Cameron Puertas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 30% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.35
+1.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Freiburg: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 3
    SC Freiburg: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Werder Bremen: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Bremen's weakened squad: Only 31% of the threat available without Jens Stage, Romano Schmid, Yukinari Sugawara, Jovan Milosevic, and Cameron Puertas
  • Freiburg averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Total dominance in head-to-head matches: Freiburg won all of the last four meetings against Bremen with a clean sheet
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor for Freiburg with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • The mathematically calculated probability for a home win is only 48%
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

SC Freiburg host Werder Bremen at the Europa-Park Stadion

Bundesliga match on August 30, 2026, 3:30 PM

Season opener for both teams

Form

Freiburg show positive momentum with form LWLWW and 3 wins in their last 5 matches

Werder Bremen struggle with negative form WDLLL and 3 consecutive defeats

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Freiburg average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded at home

Bremen score 1.06 goals and concede 1.71 goals on average per away game

Home statistics point to a stable Freiburg defense

Head-to-Head

Clear advantage for Freiburg in the historical record

Four wins from four head-to-head matches with a goal record of 10:0

The last meeting ended in a 1:0 win for Freiburg

Key Players

Igor Matanovic scored 11 goals this season

Derry Scherhant shows rising form with 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Not nominated: Johan Manzambi (5 goals, 4 assists) and Philipp Treu (1 goal, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Mio Backhaus is in goal for Freiburg

Karl Hein starts for Bremen and holds a season average rating of 7.6

Both sides rely on solid goalkeeping performances

Influences

Freiburg play on grass at the Europa-Park Stadion

Bremen travel with a long break of 106 days since their last match

Freiburg played their last match just 3 days ago

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