Match report ā
SC Freiburg ā Werder Bremen4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
SC Freiburg
1.50
Total xG
2.46
Werder Bremen
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | ā1.72 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.35 | +1.35 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.68 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | ā0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ā0.04 | |
| Johan Manzambi not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Philipp Treu on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jens Stage not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Romano Schmid not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Yukinari Sugawara not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Jovan Milosevic not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Cameron Puertas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 30% available) |
Key factors
- Bremen's weakened squad: Only 31% of the threat available without Jens Stage, Romano Schmid, Yukinari Sugawara, Jovan Milosevic, and Cameron Puertas
- Freiburg averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Total dominance in head-to-head matches: Freiburg won all of the last four meetings against Bremen with a clean sheet
Risks
- Fatigue factor for Freiburg with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- The mathematically calculated probability for a home win is only 48%
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
SC Freiburg48%
Draw29%
Werder Bremen23%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
SC Freiburg or draw77%
Werder Bremen or draw52%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- SC Freiburg: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Werder Bremen: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 15)
Lineups
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1 Ā· Werder Bremen 4-3-3
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 17 L. KĆ¼bler
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 31 I. Matanovic
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 20 I. San JosƩ Cantalejo
- 14 S. Lynen
- 15 L. Reis
- 11 J. Njinmah
- 10 N. FĆ¼llkrug
- 17 M. GrĆ¼ll
Substitutes
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 30 C. GĆ¼nter
- 9 L. Hƶler
- 21 F. MĆ¼ller
- 32 V. Grifo
- 22 C. IriƩ
- 29 P. Treu
- 42 K. Goto
- 27 B. Yilmaz
- 24 P. ÄoviÄ
- 22 J. Malatini
- 29 S. Musah
- 7 S. Mbangula
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 30 A. Schlager
- 26 C. Itten
- 23 D. Stalmach
- 38 P. Erevbenagie
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