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FC Bayern München – VfB Stuttgart5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Bayern München
2.68
Total xG
4.08
VfB Stuttgart
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.61x league average) | +1.22 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Leon Goretzka not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jamal Musiala not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Josip Stanisic on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Tah on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jamie Leweling on the bench (7 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Chris Führich not in squad (7 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Bilal El Khannouss on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Chema Andrés on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- High home win probability of 64% according to the model, with 2.68 expected goals for Bayern
- Impressive historical dominance for Bayern with 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-head matches and a 19:3 goal record
- Bayern's immense tactical dominance with an average of 67% possession and 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Stuttgart is weakened by the absence of key players like Jamie Leweling and Chris Führich, leaving only 69% of goal threat available
- Bayern's defense has been vulnerable, conceding 2.0 goals on average recently compared to their season average of 1.17
- Stuttgart's goalkeeper Fabian Bredlow starts without any match practice this season
All probabilities
Result
FC Bayern München64%
Draw19%
VfB Stuttgart18%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Over 3.558%
Under 3.542%
Double chance
FC Bayern München or draw83%
VfB Stuttgart or draw36%
No draw81%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
2:2
6%
3:0
5%
3:2
5%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Bayern München: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: 4 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (10 points rescued)
- Ermedin Demirovic: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
FC Bayern München
- 1 M. Neuer
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 3 M. Kim
- 19 A. Davies
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 17 M. Olise
- 11 N. Brown
- 14 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 9 H. Kane
VfB Stuttgart
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 24 J. Chabot
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
- 21 G. Prömel
- 6 A. Stiller
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 26 D. Undav
- 8 T. de Melo Tomás
Substitutes
- 22 A.Ibrahimovic
- 42 L. Karl
- 8 T. Bischof
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 21 H. Ito
- 40 J. Urbig
- 4 J. Tah
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 39 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
- 30 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 9 E. Demirović
- 27 B. Bouanani
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 16 A. Karazor
- 20 L. Stergiou
- 18 J. Leweling
- 33 M. Funk
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