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Bundesliga

FC Bayern München - VfB Stuttgart

08/28/2026, 06:30 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Bayern München
2.7
Total xG
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
1.4
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

2:2

6%

3:0

5%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FBMVS

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.61x league average)
+1.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Leon Goretzka not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Jamal Musiala not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Josip Stanisic on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Jonathan Tah on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

VfB Stuttgart

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.05
Jamie Leweling on the bench (7 goals, 9 assists)
Chris Führich not in squad (7 goals, 7 assists)
Bilal El Khannouss on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
Chema Andrés on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.74
+0.74
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    FC Bayern München: 4 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (10 points rescued)

  • 3
    Ermedin Demirovic: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

19%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

92%

Under 1.5

8%

Over 2.5

77%

Under 2.5

23%

Over 3.5

58%

Under 3.5

42%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • High home win probability of 64% according to the model, with 2.68 expected goals for Bayern
  • Impressive historical dominance for Bayern with 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-head matches and a 19:3 goal record
  • Bayern's immense tactical dominance with an average of 67% possession and 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Stuttgart is weakened by the absence of key players like Jamie Leweling and Chris Führich, leaving only 69% of goal threat available
  • Bayern's defense has been vulnerable, conceding 2.0 goals on average recently compared to their season average of 1.17
  • Stuttgart's goalkeeper Fabian Bredlow starts without any match practice this season
Overview

FC Bayern München hosts VfB Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena

Bundesliga match on August 28, 2026, 8:30 PM

Both teams are starting at 0 points, with Bayern in 7th place and Stuttgart in 14th

An early season clash with historic rivalry

Form

FC Bayern is in LDDWW form with two consecutive wins recently

VfB Stuttgart shows LDDWD form with only one win in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Bayern recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games

Statistics

Bayern averaged 3.59 goals scored per game across the season

Stuttgart averaged 2.09 goals scored per game

Advanced stats show Bayern's recent scoring of 2.8 goals is below their season average of 3.44

Head-to-Head

Bayern completely dominates the head-to-head record

Five wins in the last five meetings with 19 goals scored and 3 conceded

The most recent duel ended in a clear 3-0 victory for FC Bayern

Key Players

Harry Kane leads Bayern's attack with 36 goals this season

Michael Olise contributed 15 goals and 19 assists

Deniz Undav is Stuttgart's top threat with 19 goals and 7 assists

Goalkeepers

Manuel Neuer starts in goal for Bayern with 12 clean sheets this season

Fabian Bredlow starts for Stuttgart but has 0 appearances in the dataset

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Allianz Arena

The venue history shows an extremely high average of 5.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in all 5 analyzed matches at this stadium

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