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RB Leipzig – Borussia Mönchengladbach3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
RB Leipzig
2.04
Total xG
3.41
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | RB Leipzig | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −4.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 5 league avg) | −3.58 | |
| High-scoring league (6 goals/match) | +3.50 | +3.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.83 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.70 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Christoph Baumgartner not in squad (13 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Yan Diomande not in squad (12 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Rômulo not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Assan Ouédraogo not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Xaver Schlager not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Max Finkgräfe on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 65% of goal output missing (only 44% available) | ||
| Haris Tabakovic not in squad (13 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Franck Honorat on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Joe Scally on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Yannik Engelhardt not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rocco Reitz not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nico Elvedi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 37% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 45% of the usual goal threat available for RB Leipzig, with Christoph Baumgartner, Yan Diomande, Rômulo, Assan Ouédraogo, Xaver Schlager, and Max Finkgräfe missing
- Only 37% of the usual goal threat available for Gladbach, with Haris Tabakovic, Franck Honorat, Joe Scally, Yannik Engelhardt, Rocco Reitz, and Nico Elvedi missing
- The mathematical prediction calculates a 52% home win probability for RB Leipzig with 2.04 expected home goals
Risks
- Borussia Mönchengladbach concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away match
- RB Leipzig concedes an average of 2.20 goals in recent matches, showing more defensive vulnerability than their season average of 1.38
All probabilities
Result
RB Leipzig52%
Draw24%
Borussia Mönchengladbach24%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw76%
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw48%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
- RB Leipzig: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- RB Leipzig: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
RB Leipzig 4-3-3 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-2-3-1
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 20 R. Reitz
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 10 B. Gruda
- 27 T. Gomis
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 M. Nicolas
- 14 D. Hashioka
- 6 K. Itakura
- 4 K. Diks
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 16 P. Sander
- 7 K. Stöger
- 38 H. Bolin
- 36 W. Mohya
- 25 R. Hack
- 11 T. Kleindienst
Substitutes
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 11 J. Bakayoko
- 9 C. Harder
- 25 L. Zingerle
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 48 A. Vermeeren
- 3 M. Esteve
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 18 S. Machino
- 29 J. Scally
- 9 F. Honorat
- 33 D. Batz
- 5 J. Leszczyński
- 3 I. Lidberg
- 8 E. Leopold
- 20 D. Herold
- 34 M. Nguefack
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