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Bundesliga

RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach

08/29/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
RB Leipzig
2.0
Total xG
3.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RLBM

RB Leipzig

Attack weakness (0.5x league average)
-4.14
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 5 league avg)
-3.58
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap)
+0.09
Christoph Baumgartner not in squad (13 goals, 9 assists)
Yan Diomande not in squad (12 goals, 8 assists)
Rômulo not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists)
Assan Ouédraogo not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Xaver Schlager not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Max Finkgräfe on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
65% of goal output missing (only 44% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match)

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.83
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.70
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap)
-0.14
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Haris Tabakovic not in squad (13 goals, 2 assists)
Franck Honorat on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Joe Scally on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Yannik Engelhardt not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Rocco Reitz not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Nico Elvedi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 37% available)

League

High-scoring league (6 goals/match)
+3.50
+3.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Borussia Mönchengladbach: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')

  • 2
    RB Leipzig: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    RB Leipzig: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

24%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Only 45% of the usual goal threat available for RB Leipzig, with Christoph Baumgartner, Yan Diomande, Rômulo, Assan Ouédraogo, Xaver Schlager, and Max Finkgräfe missing
  • Only 37% of the usual goal threat available for Gladbach, with Haris Tabakovic, Franck Honorat, Joe Scally, Yannik Engelhardt, Rocco Reitz, and Nico Elvedi missing
  • The mathematical prediction calculates a 52% home win probability for RB Leipzig with 2.04 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away match
  • RB Leipzig concedes an average of 2.20 goals in recent matches, showing more defensive vulnerability than their season average of 1.38
Overview

RB Leipzig host Borussia Mönchengladbach at the Red Bull Arena

Bundesliga season opener on August 29, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams start the campaign level on points in 5th and 7th place

An evenly matched duel on the opening matchday

Form

RB Leipzig with the form WWLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 losses recently

Borussia Mönchengladbach travel with the form DDWLW

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently

Statistics

RB Leipzig averaged 1.94 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded over the season

In home games, Leipzig scored an average of 1.90 goals while conceding only 0.95

Mönchengladbach averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per match

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 18 out of 34 Gladbach season matches

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 1 win for each team and 2 draws from 4 head-to-head matches

The last encounter on April 11, 2026, ended in a 1-0 home win for RB Leipzig

Goal difference is also completely balanced at 1-1 in total goals

Key Players

David Raum stabilizes the defense with a strong season rating of 7.44 and contributed 7 assists

Antonio Nusa enlivens the attack with 4 season goals and 4 assists

Willi Orbán brings stability with an average rating of 7.19

Kevin Diks is the visitors' most dangerous defender with 5 season goals

Kevin Stöger guides Gladbach's midfield with an average rating of 6.77

Goalkeeper Moritz Nicolas started all 34 season matches and holds a strong rating of 7.14

Goalkeepers

Maarten Vandevoordt played in 12 season matches for Leipzig, registering a rating of 6.8

Moritz Nicolas guarded Gladbach's goal in all 34 matches, securing 13 clean sheets with a strong average rating of 7.14

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Red Bull Arena

Stadium statistics show a high-scoring average of 2.8 goals per match

Leipzig averaged a strong 1.90 goals scored per game on home turf

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