DumbleScore
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Bundesliga08/29/2026, 01:30 PM

Elversberg – Bayer 04 Leverkusen3 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Elversberg
3.00
Total xG
4.14
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

Key factors

  • High mathematical home win probability of 74% and 3.0 predicted home goals for Elversberg
  • Leverkusen's defensive vulnerability in away matches with an average of 1.87 goals conceded
  • Leverkusen averaged a strong 7.0 shots on target per match in recent games

Risks

  • Limited data availability for Elversberg due to missing form and seasonal statistics in the dataset
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen concedes an average of 1.87 goals per away game
  • Only 74% of Leverkusen's attacking threat available due to the absence of Alejandro Grimaldo and Nathan Tella

All probabilities

Result
Elversberg74%
Draw15%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen11%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.578%
Under 2.522%
Over 3.559%
Under 3.541%
Double chance
Elversberg or draw89%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw26%
No draw85%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%

Most likely scores

2:1
8%
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
4:1
6%
4:0
5%
3:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (14 points lost)
  2. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  3. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Lineups

Elversberg 4-2-3-1 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1

Elversberg
  • 20 N. Kristof
  • 30 J. Gyamerah
  • 19 L. Pinckert
  • 31 M. Rohr
  • 21 L. GĂŒnther
  • 43 F. Keidel
  • 8 Ɓ. Poręba
  • 25 L. Petkov
  • 40 F. Onyeka
  • 39 W. Campbell
  • 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
  • 1 M. Flekken
  • 17 L. VĂĄzquez Iglesias
  • 5 L. BadĂ©
  • 12 E. Tapsoba
  • 3 M. GutiĂ©rrez Ortega
  • 6 I. FernĂĄndez Carballo
  • 24 A. GarcĂ­a Serrano
  • 30 I. Maza
  • 10 M. Tillman
  • 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
  • 14 P. Schick
Substitutes
  • 10 N. Darvich
  • 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
  • 3 F. Le Joncour
  • 6 A. CondĂ©
  • 7 M. Krattenmacher
  • 9 N. Futkeu
  • 24 L. Schnellbacher
  • 26 L. Sirch
  • 28 T. Boss
  • 22 V. Boniface
  • 4 J. Quansah
  • 35 C. Kofane
  • 28 J. Blaswich
  • 8 R. Andrich
  • 7 J. Hofmann
  • 44 J. Belocian
  • 13 A. de Matos Soares
  • 2 F. Medina

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