Match report →
FSV Mainz 05 – Paderborn0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FSV Mainz 05
2.44
Total xG
3.94
Paderborn
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 57% home win probability and expects 2.44 goals for Mainz
- Tactical offensive strength: Mainz averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Rising form trend: Advanced statistics show Mainz is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals)
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Mainz concedes an average of 1.56 goals per home match
- Missing key player: Paul Nebel is ruled out due to injury
- Limited data available for Paderborn in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
FSV Mainz 0557%
Draw21%
Paderborn22%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.556%
Under 3.545%
Double chance
FSV Mainz 05 or draw78%
Paderborn or draw43%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:2
5%
3:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FSV Mainz 05: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- FSV Mainz 05 with Phillip Tietz starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (23/7 games, last 30)
- FSV Mainz 05: 37% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 19)
- FSV Mainz 05: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2 · Paderborn 3-4-3
FSV Mainz 05
- 27 R. Zentner
- 21 D. Vieira da Costa
- 3 F. Gruber
- 31 D. Kohr
- 6 K. Sano
- 19 A. Caci
- 7 J. Lee
- 10 N. Amiri
- 2 P. Mwene
- 23 S. Becker
- 9 P. Tietz
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 17 L. Curda
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 23 R. Obermair
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 30 S. Marino
- 40 G. Vidović
Substitutes
- 11 R. Königsdörffer
- 24 S. Kawasaki
- 48 K. Potulski
- 15 L. Maloney
- 30 S. Widmer
- 20 O. Ruoppi
- 4 S. Posch
- 1 A. Schwolow
- 47 R. Nakuzola
- 38 D. Zeitler
- 8 L. Đurić
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 6 T. Baack
- 7 O. Meier
- 24 Niklas Mohr
- 27 S. Tigges
- 29 C. Lippmann
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