Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 - Paderborn
08/29/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.9
1.5
2:1
9%3:1
7%2:2
7%1:2
5%3:2
5%The Lab
- 1FSV Mainz 05: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- 2FSV Mainz 05 with Phillip Tietz starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (23/7 games, last 30)
- 3FSV Mainz 05: 37% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 19)
- 4FSV Mainz 05: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
57%
Draw
21%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Under 1.5
9%
Over 2.5
75%
Under 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
56%
Under 3.5
45%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
43%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
72%
No
28%
Key Factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 57% home win probability and expects 2.44 goals for Mainz
- Tactical offensive strength: Mainz averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Rising form trend: Advanced statistics show Mainz is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals)
Risk Factors
- Defensive vulnerability: Mainz concedes an average of 1.56 goals per home match
- Missing key player: Paul Nebel is ruled out due to injury
- Limited data available for Paderborn in the provided dataset
Overview
FSV Mainz 05 hosts Paderborn at the Mewa Arena
Bundesliga match on August 29, 2026, 3:30 PM
Mainz currently sits in 8th place, while Paderborn is in 10th place
The home side enters as the favorite with a 57% win probability according to the model
Form
Mainz shows a mixed form with the record DLWLW
The home side has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Their most recent match ended in a win for Mainz
No form data is available for Paderborn in the current dataset
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Mainz scored an average of 1.29 goals per game and conceded 1.56 last season
In home matches, they averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded
Advanced statistics indicate that Mainz is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) compared to their season average (1.4)
No season statistics are available for Paderborn
Key Players
Nadiem Amiri leads the team with 12 season goals, 2 assists, and an average rating of 7.41
Phillip Tietz recorded 5 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 6.85
Sheraldo Becker contributed 3 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 6.94
Goalkeepers
Robin Zentner guards the goal for Mainz, holding an average rating of 6.81
Mainz recorded 4 clean sheets throughout the entire last season
Nahuel Noll starts in goal for Paderborn, with no detailed performance data available
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass at the Mewa Arena
Stadium statistics from the last 5 games show a high average of 3.6 goals per game
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of these matches
Both teams scored in 40% of the games