Match report →
FC Köln – TSG Hoffenheim3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Köln
1.54
Total xG
3.34
TSG Hoffenheim
1.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Köln | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.37x league average) | −4.44 | |
| High-scoring league (6 goals/match) | +3.50 | +3.50 |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 5 league avg) | −3.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | +0.99 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Jakub Kamiński not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marius Bülter on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Eric Martel not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kristoffer Lund not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Andrej Kramaric on the bench (14 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Fisnik Asllani not in squad (10 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Bazoumana Touré not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Tim Lemperle not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 78% of goal output missing (only 30% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Only 30% of Hoffenheim's usual attacking threat is available as Andrej Kramaric, Fisnik Asllani, Bazoumana Touré and Tim Lemperle are missing
- Historical stadium statistics show an extremely high-scoring environment with 4.0 average goals and 100% BTTS rate
- TSG Hoffenheim recently dominated possession with 56% and averaged 5.2 shots on target
Risks
- FC Köln concedes an average of 1.85 goals per game and shows a negative form trend
- TSG Hoffenheim struggles defensively on the road with an average of 1.94 goals conceded
- FC Köln is missing key starters like Jakub Kamiński, Marius Bülter, Eric Martel and Kristoffer Lund
All probabilities
Result
FC Köln32%
Draw25%
TSG Hoffenheim43%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Double chance
FC Köln or draw57%
TSG Hoffenheim or draw68%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Köln: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Köln: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
FC Köln 4-3-3 · TSG Hoffenheim 4-4-2
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 14 G. Mensah
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 5 T. Krauß
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 9 R. Ache
- 10 S. El Mala
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 5 O. Kabak
- 21 A. Hajdari
- 13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
- 8 P. Wimmer
- 18 W. Burger
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 14 A. Daghim
- 10 A. Hložek
- 20 B. Conté
Substitutes
- 2 J. Schmied
- 37 L. Maina
- 30 M. Bülter
- 33 R. van den Berg
- 20 R. Zieler
- 6 E. Skhiri
- 27 T. Dallinga
- 11 R. Heskey
- 39 J. Friemel
- 15 V. Gendrey
- 2 R. Hranáč
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 9 M. Moerstedt
- 37 L. Philipp
- 17 N. De Cat
- 39 M. Rots
- 29 N. Abraha
- 32 C. Lenz
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