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Bundesliga

FC Köln - TSG Hoffenheim

08/29/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Köln
1.5
Total xG
3.3
TSG Hoffenheim
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FKTH

FC Köln

Attack weakness (0.37x league average)
-4.44
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 5 league avg)
-3.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Jakub Kamiński not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)
Marius Bülter on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Eric Martel not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Kristoffer Lund not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

TSG Hoffenheim

Attack strength (1.51x league average)
+0.99
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.58
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Andrej Kramaric on the bench (14 goals, 6 assists)
Fisnik Asllani not in squad (10 goals, 8 assists)
Bazoumana Touré not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists)
Tim Lemperle not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists)
78% of goal output missing (only 30% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (6 goals/match)
+3.50
+3.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Köln: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    FC Köln: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    TSG Hoffenheim: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 5
    TSG Hoffenheim: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

25%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 30% of Hoffenheim's usual attacking threat is available as Andrej Kramaric, Fisnik Asllani, Bazoumana Touré and Tim Lemperle are missing
  • Historical stadium statistics show an extremely high-scoring environment with 4.0 average goals and 100% BTTS rate
  • TSG Hoffenheim recently dominated possession with 56% and averaged 5.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • FC Köln concedes an average of 1.85 goals per game and shows a negative form trend
  • TSG Hoffenheim struggles defensively on the road with an average of 1.94 goals conceded
  • FC Köln is missing key starters like Jakub Kamiński, Marius Bülter, Eric Martel and Kristoffer Lund
Overview

FC Köln hosts TSG Hoffenheim at the RheinEnergieStadion

Bundesliga match on August 29, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams enter the match without points after the season start

The model predicts a close game with a slight advantage for the visitors

Form

FC Köln shows a weak form: DLDLL

0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their recent matches

TSG Hoffenheim is in better shape: WWDWL

3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss for the visitors

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Köln scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.85 goals

TSG Hoffenheim averages 1.91 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded

Köln's home goals average is at 1.43 per game

Hoffenheim travels with a strong away offense of 1.88 goals per match

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in recent history

1 win for FC Köln and 1 draw

Goal difference of 3:2 in favor of Köln

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

Said El Mala is Köln's top scorer with 13 goals and 5 assists

Ragnar Ache adds attacking threat with 7 goals this season

Wouter Burger stabilizes Hoffenheim's midfield with 4 goals and 6 assists

Vladimír Coufal has already provided 8 assists

Not starting for Köln: Jakub Kamiński, Marius Bülter, Eric Martel, Kristoffer Lund

Goalkeepers

Marvin Schwäbe played 34 matches for Köln and kept 3 clean sheets

Oliver Baumann completed 34 games for Hoffenheim with 7 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the RheinEnergieStadion

Historically, the stadium averages 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in all 5 analyzed home matches

All of these games ended with over 2.5 goals

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