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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV

08/29/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Borussia Dortmund
2.3
Total xG
3.1
Hamburger SV
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

3:0

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
BDHS

Borussia Dortmund

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.8 league avg)
-1.58
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.03
Julian Brandt not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Nico Schlotterbeck not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Marcel Sabitzer on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

Hamburger SV

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.47
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.08
Fábio Vieira not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists)
Ransford Königsdörffer not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Robert Glatzel not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
63% of goal output missing (only 39% available)

League

High-scoring league (4.2 goals/match)
+1.66
+1.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Borussia Dortmund: 9 of 22 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Borussia Dortmund: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against VfB Stuttgart: 2 goals (90+4', 90+6')

  • 3
    Borussia Dortmund: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Hamburger SV: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

20%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

30%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Only 39% of usual starting threat available for Hamburger SV, with Fábio Vieira, Ransford Königsdörffer, and Robert Glatzel missing
  • Borussia Dortmund averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Strong mathematical support with a 70% probability for a Borussia Dortmund home win
Risk Factors
  • Borussia Dortmund starts without key players Julian Brandt, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Marcel Sabitzer
  • Hamburger SV concedes a severe average of 2.46 goals per away match
Overview

Borussia Dortmund hosts Hamburger SV at the Signal Iduna Park

Bundesliga match on August 29, 2026, 6:30 PM

Dortmund starts at 9th place while Hamburg sits at 7th position

An important early-season clash in front of a passionate crowd

Form

Dortmund shows a form of LWLWW with three wins in their last five games

Hamburg enters with a form of LLWWD after recording two wins and one draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Dortmund recently won 2-0 against Bremen, while Hamburg drew 1-1 against Leverkusen

Statistics

Dortmund averages 2.06 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per match in the season

At home, the Black and Yellows are formidable with 2.11 goals scored per game

Hamburg struggles heavily on the road, conceding an average of 2.46 goals per away match

The visitors failed to score in 10 matches during the season

Head-to-Head

In the last two head-to-head matches, Dortmund recorded one home win and one draw

The last meeting ended 3-2 for Dortmund on March 21, 2026

The overall goal tally stands at 4-3 in favor of Dortmund

Key Players

Serhou Guirassy leads Dortmund's attack with 17 goals this season

Julian Ryerson provides great threat from defense with 16 assists

For the visitors, Albert Grønbæk shines in midfield with one goal and two assists in his last three games

Goalkeepers

Gregor Kobel played 34 matches for BVB, keeping 15 clean sheets

Daniel Heuer Fernandes featured in 33 games for Hamburg, securing 6 clean sheets

Influences

Dortmund relies on a strong home advantage at the Signal Iduna Park, averaging 2.11 goals scored

The match is played on natural grass surface

The mathematical model expects 2.31 goals for Dortmund and 0.82 goals for Hamburg

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