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Borussia Dortmund – Hamburger SV2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Dortmund
2.31
Total xG
3.13
Hamburger SV
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.2 goals/match) | +1.66 | +1.66 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.8 league avg) | −1.58 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.47 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Julian Brandt not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nico Schlotterbeck not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Marcel Sabitzer on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Fábio Vieira not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Ransford Königsdörffer not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Robert Glatzel not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 63% of goal output missing (only 39% available) |
Key factors
- Only 39% of usual starting threat available for Hamburger SV, with Fábio Vieira, Ransford Königsdörffer, and Robert Glatzel missing
- Borussia Dortmund averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Strong mathematical support with a 70% probability for a Borussia Dortmund home win
Risks
- Borussia Dortmund starts without key players Julian Brandt, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Marcel Sabitzer
- Hamburger SV concedes a severe average of 2.46 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Dortmund70%
Draw20%
Hamburger SV11%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw89%
Hamburger SV or draw30%
No draw80%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Dortmund: 9 of 22 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Borussia Dortmund: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against VfB Stuttgart: 2 goals (90+4', 90+6')
- Borussia Dortmund: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Hamburger SV: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
Lineups
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-3 · Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 24 D. Svensson
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 14 M. Beier
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 9 S. Guirassy
- 45 I. Konstantelias
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 24 N. Capaldo
- 33 S. Bornauw
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 18 B. Jatta
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 21 N. Remberg
- 37 L. Lemke
- 5 M. Adeline
- 11 A. Erlykke
- 27 P. Daka
Substitutes
- 33 A. Meyer
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 39 F. Mane
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 25 J. Veerman
- 40 S. Inacio
- 49 L. Reggiani
- 41 M. Albert
- 36 K. de Almeida
- 14 R. Philippe
- 15 Y. Yurary Poulsen
- 8 D. Elfadli
- 4 B. Nadir
- 9 T. Moffi
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 43 S. Nandja
- 22 K. Amoako
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