Match report →
FC Union Berlin – Eintracht Frankfurt3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
FC Union Berlin
1.67
Total xG
2.80
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.33x league average) | −4.46 | |
| High-scoring league (6 goals/match) | +3.50 | +3.50 |
| Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +1.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Andrej Ilic not in squad (5 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Oliver Burke not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ilyas Ansah not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Danilho Doekhi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Christopher Trimmel on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 43% available) | ||
| Nathaniel Brown not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Arnaud Kalimuendo not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hugo Larsson not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Oscar Højlund on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Weakened home squad: Only 43% of the regular starting threat available, as Andrej Ilic, Oliver Burke, Ilyas Ansah, Danilho Doekhi, and Christopher Trimmel are missing
- Attacking intent: Both teams averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Form trend: FC Union Berlin currently scores more frequently, averaging 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Eintracht Frankfurt concedes an average of 2.11 goals per away match this season
- Stagnating attack: Eintracht Frankfurt's goal production has slowed down to 1.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8
All probabilities
Result
FC Union Berlin49%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt24%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
FC Union Berlin or draw76%
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw51%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 7 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Jonathan Burkardt: 5 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against FSV Mainz 05: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- Eintracht Frankfurt: scored only after the break in 7 of 12 games
- FC Union Berlin: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Lineups
FC Union Berlin 4-1-3-2 · Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2
FC Union Berlin
- 31 M. Raab
- 18 J. Juranović
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
- 15 T. Rothe
- 6 A. Kemlein
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 8 R. Khedira
- 13 A. Schafer
- 27 M. Ljubičić
- 29 E. Latte Lath
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 2 E. Baum
- 4 R. Koch
- 37 J. Maluze
- 26 K. Kosugi
- 29 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 8 F. Chaïbi
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 42 C. Uzun
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
- 9 J. Burkardt
Substitutes
- 9 L. Burcu
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 17 D. Köhn
- 25 C. Klaus
- 21 T. Skarke
- 11 W. Jeong
- 19 J. Haberer
- 2 F. Uduokhai
- 49 L. Güther
- 6 O. Højlund
- 31 P. Arrhov
- 27 M. Götze
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 22 T. Chandler
- 19 J. Bahoya
- 35 M. Razak Engholm Pimpong
- 5 O. Galdino Fernandes
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
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