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Bayer 04 Leverkusen – FC Union Berlin4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.21
Total xG
3.54
FC Union Berlin
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 3 league avg) | −1.54 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.85 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.35 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Alejandro Grimaldo not in squad (8 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Robert Andrich on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Andrej Ilic not in squad (5 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Oliver Burke not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ilyas Ansah not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Danilho Doekhi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| András Schäfer on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Christopher Trimmel on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 56% of goal output missing (only 39% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 40% of Union Berlin's goal threat is available due to the absence of Andrej Ilic, Oliver Burke, Ilyas Ansah, Danilho Doekhi, András Schäfer, and Christopher Trimmel
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen recently averaged 5.8 shots on target with high possession (58%)
- Mathematical analysis favors Bayer 04 Leverkusen with a 56% home win probability
Risks
- FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen must play without Alejandro Grimaldo (8 goals, 8 assists) and Robert Andrich
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen56%
Draw22%
FC Union Berlin21%
Double chance
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw79%
FC Union Berlin or draw44%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No34%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Union Berlin: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 18)
- FC Union Berlin: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (12 points lost)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1 · FC Union Berlin 4-3-1-2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1 M. Flekken
- 4 J. Quansah
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 2 F. Medina
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 24 A. García Serrano
- 6 I. Fernández Carballo
- 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
- 10 M. Tillman
- 30 I. Maza
- 14 P. Schick
FC Union Berlin
- 1 F. Rønnow
- 18 J. Juranović
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
- 2 F. Uduokhai
- 15 T. Rothe
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 6 A. Kemlein
- 9 L. Burcu
- 8 R. Khedira
- 29 E. Latte Lath
- 27 M. Ljubičić
Substitutes
- 22 V. Boniface
- 35 C. Kofane
- 28 J. Blaswich
- 17 L. Vázquez Iglesias
- 8 R. Andrich
- 7 J. Hofmann
- 5 L. Badé
- 15 T. Oermann
- 19 M. Diaby
- 13 A. Schafer
- 24 R. Skov
- 31 M. Raab
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 17 D. Köhn
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 21 T. Skarke
- 11 W. Jeong
- 19 J. Haberer
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