đŸ‡©đŸ‡Ș

Bundesliga

Bayer 04 Leverkusen - FC Union Berlin

09/05/2026, 01:30 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.2
Total xG
3.5
FC Union Berlin
1.3
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
B0LFUB

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 3 league avg)
-1.54
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.04
Alejandro Grimaldo not in squad (8 goals, 8 assists)
Robert Andrich on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

FC Union Berlin

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.85
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.35
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.35
Andrej Ilic not in squad (5 goals, 10 assists)
Oliver Burke not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Ilyas Ansah not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Danilho Doekhi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Andrås SchÀfer on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Christopher Trimmel on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
56% of goal output missing (only 39% available)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Union Berlin: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 18)

  • 2
    FC Union Berlin: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    FC Union Berlin: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (12 points lost)

  • 5
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 6
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

22%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Only 40% of Union Berlin's goal threat is available due to the absence of Andrej Ilic, Oliver Burke, Ilyas Ansah, Danilho Doekhi, AndrĂĄs SchĂ€fer, and Christopher Trimmel
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen recently averaged 5.8 shots on target with high possession (58%)
  • Mathematical analysis favors Bayer 04 Leverkusen with a 56% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen must play without Alejandro Grimaldo (8 goals, 8 assists) and Robert Andrich
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (14th place, 0 points) host FC Union Berlin (9th place, 1 point) at the BayArena

Bundesliga match on September 5, 2026, 3:30 PM

Leverkusen search for their first points after a disappointing start

Form

Leverkusen's form string is WWLDL with a loss in their last match

The hosts recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

FC Union Berlin's form string is LDWWD with a draw in their last match

Union Berlin currently scores more frequently with 2.6 goals than their season average of 1.4 goals

Statistics

Leverkusen averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored an average of 2.0 goals per match

The visitors from Berlin score an average of 1.29 goals per game

In away games, Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.29 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the database

FC Union Berlin recorded 2 wins, while Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1 match

1 match ended in a draw

The last encounter ended 1-0 in favor of FC Union Berlin

Key Players

Patrik Schick with 16 season goals and Aleix GarcĂ­a with 8 assists shape the play

Edmond Tapsoba stabilizes the defense with a season rating of 7.13

Josip Juranovic has stood out with 1 goal and 3 assists in recent matches

Marin Ljubicic scored 2 goals in only 2 season appearances

Rani Khedira controls the midfield with 32 season appearances

Goalkeepers

Mark Flekken guards the goal with a season rating of 6.83

Bayer 04 Leverkusen managed 8 clean sheets this season

Frederik Rönnow is in goal with a season rating of 6.67

Union Berlin kept 7 clean sheets so far

Influences

The BayArena features a high average of 4.2 total goals per match

Both teams scored in all 5 analyzed home matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen will play the match on their familiar grass surface

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.