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Bundesliga

Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig

09/05/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Werder Bremen
1.1
Total xG
3.0
RB Leipzig
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

6%

2:1

6%
What influences the xG?
WBRL

Werder Bremen

Attack weakness (0.41x league average)
-2.36
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 3 league avg)
-1.12
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.15
Jens Stage not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
Romano Schmid not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
Yukinari Sugawara not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Justin Njinmah not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Cameron Puertas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
74% of goal output missing (only 22% available)

RB Leipzig

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+1.03
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.38
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.01
Christoph Baumgartner not in squad (13 goals, 9 assists)
Yan Diomande not in squad (12 goals, 8 assists)
Rômulo not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists)
Assan Ouédraogo not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Brajan Gruda not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Xaver Schlager not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Max Finkgräfe not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
68% of goal output missing (only 41% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    RB Leipzig: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    RB Leipzig: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 3
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 4
    Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

20%

Draw

25%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

80%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Bremen heavily weakened: Only 23% of the usual goal threat available without Jens Stage, Romano Schmid, Yukinari Sugawara, Justin Njinmah, and Cameron Puertas
  • Leipzig also severely depleted: Only 42% of the goal threat on pitch without Christoph Baumgartner, Yan Diomande, Rômulo, Assan Ouédraogo, Brajan Gruda, Xaver Schlager, and Max Finkgräfe
  • Leipzig averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent matches, presenting high offensive power
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Leipzig conceded an average of 2.08 goals per away game
  • Bremen's negative trend with 4 consecutive losses and stalled goal production (0.6 goals recently)
Overview

Werder Bremen (16th place, 0 points) host RB Leipzig (3rd place, 3 points)

Match at the Wohninvest Weserstadion on September 5, 2026, 3:30 PM

Bremen is under pressure after a poor start while Leipzig aims to build on their opening win

Form

Form Werder Bremen: DLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Bremen has no wins in their last 5 matches and suffered 4 consecutive losses recently

Form RB Leipzig: WLWLW

Leipzig recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Statistics

Bremen scored 1.09 goals and conceded 1.76 goals on average per match this season

Leipzig averaged 1.94 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per match

Leipzig concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game

Bremen's home record shows an average of 1.12 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the database

RB Leipzig dominates with 3 wins and 1 draw

Werder Bremen is still waiting for their first win against Leipzig

The last encounter ended 1-2 in favor of Leipzig on April 4, 2026

Key Players

For Bremen, Olivier Deman (average rating 6.96), Amos Pieper (6.93) and Marco Grüll (6.81) are in focus

For Leipzig, David Raum (rating 7.44, 3 goals, 7 assists), Willi Orbán (7.19) and Antonio Nusa (7.04, 4 goals, 4 assists) are key

Both teams rely on their statistically strongest available performers

Goalkeepers

Karl Hein played 2 matches for Bremen this season with a rating of 7.6

Maarten Vandevoordt stood in goal 12 times for Leipzig with a rating of 6.80

Bremen kept 6 clean sheets in total, while Leipzig has 11 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage for Bremen at the Wohninvest Weserstadion on grass pitch

Stadium stats show an average of 3 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at the Weserstadion

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