Match report →
Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Werder Bremen
1.10
Total xG
2.99
RB Leipzig
1.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.41x league average) | −2.36 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 3 league avg) | −1.12 | |
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +1.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Jens Stage not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Romano Schmid not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Yukinari Sugawara not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Justin Njinmah not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Cameron Puertas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 74% of goal output missing (only 22% available) | ||
| Christoph Baumgartner not in squad (13 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Yan Diomande not in squad (12 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Rômulo not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Assan Ouédraogo not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Brajan Gruda not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Xaver Schlager not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Max Finkgräfe not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 68% of goal output missing (only 41% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Bremen heavily weakened: Only 23% of the usual goal threat available without Jens Stage, Romano Schmid, Yukinari Sugawara, Justin Njinmah, and Cameron Puertas
- Leipzig also severely depleted: Only 42% of the goal threat on pitch without Christoph Baumgartner, Yan Diomande, Rômulo, Assan Ouédraogo, Brajan Gruda, Xaver Schlager, and Max Finkgräfe
- Leipzig averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent matches, presenting high offensive power
Risks
- Away weakness: Leipzig conceded an average of 2.08 goals per away game
- Bremen's negative trend with 4 consecutive losses and stalled goal production (0.6 goals recently)
All probabilities
Result
Werder Bremen20%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig55%
Double chance
Werder Bremen or draw45%
RB Leipzig or draw80%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- RB Leipzig: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- RB Leipzig: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1 · RB Leipzig 4-3-3
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 13 A. de Matos Soares
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 15 L. Reis
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 20 I. San José Cantalejo
- 17 M. Grüll
- 10 N. Füllkrug
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 3 M. Esteve
- 22 D. Raum
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 11 J. Bakayoko
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
Substitutes
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 29 S. Musah
- 4 N. Stark
- 30 A. Schlager
- 16 M. Ndiaye
- 26 C. Itten
- 3 O. Wójcik
- 23 D. Stalmach
- 38 P. Erevbenagie
- 45 S. Konate
- 27 T. Gomis
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 16 L. Klostermann
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 9 M. Guiu Paz
- 2 A. Koné
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