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TSG Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
TSG Hoffenheim
1.46
Total xG
2.67
Borussia Dortmund
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | TSG Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −2.10 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Andrej Kramaric not in squad (14 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Fisnik Asllani not in squad (10 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Bazoumana Touré not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 48% available) | ||
| Julian Brandt not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nico Schlotterbeck not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Marcel Sabitzer on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 48% of the goal threat is available, missing Andrej Kramaric, Fisnik Asllani, and Bazoumana Touré
- Both teams recently averaged high offensive activity with more than 5 shots on target per match
- The model predicts a 56% probability that both teams will score
Risks
- TSG Hoffenheim recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game
- TSG Hoffenheim's goal production has dropped to an average of 1.6 goals recently compared to the season average
All probabilities
Result
TSG Hoffenheim41%
Draw29%
Borussia Dortmund30%
Double chance
TSG Hoffenheim or draw70%
Borussia Dortmund or draw59%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 of 23 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)
- Borussia Dortmund: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 18)
- Borussia Dortmund: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against VfB Stuttgart: 2 goals (90+4', 90+6')
Lineups
TSG Hoffenheim 4-4-2 · Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 5 O. Kabak
- 21 A. Hajdari
- 39 M. Rots
- 8 P. Wimmer
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 18 W. Burger
- 14 A. Daghim
- 10 A. Hložek
- 19 T. Lemperle
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 39 F. Mane
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 24 D. Svensson
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 14 M. Beier
- 9 S. Guirassy
Substitutes
- 15 V. Gendrey
- 2 R. Hranáč
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 9 M. Moerstedt
- 37 L. Philipp
- 13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
- 17 N. De Cat
- 20 B. Conté
- 32 C. Lenz
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 33 A. Meyer
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 25 J. Veerman
- 49 L. Reggiani
- 41 M. Albert
- 36 K. de Almeida
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