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Bundesliga

TSG Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund

09/05/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
TSG Hoffenheim
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Borussia Dortmund
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
THBD

TSG Hoffenheim

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-2.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Andrej Kramaric not in squad (14 goals, 6 assists)
Fisnik Asllani not in squad (10 goals, 8 assists)
Bazoumana Touré not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 48% available)

Borussia Dortmund

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.03
Julian Brandt not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Nico Schlotterbeck not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Marcel Sabitzer on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Borussia Dortmund: 8 of 23 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    TSG Hoffenheim: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Borussia Dortmund: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    TSG Hoffenheim: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 18)

  • 6
    Borussia Dortmund: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against VfB Stuttgart: 2 goals (90+4', 90+6')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

29%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Only 48% of the goal threat is available, missing Andrej Kramaric, Fisnik Asllani, and Bazoumana Touré
  • Both teams recently averaged high offensive activity with more than 5 shots on target per match
  • The model predicts a 56% probability that both teams will score
Risk Factors
  • TSG Hoffenheim recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game
  • TSG Hoffenheim's goal production has dropped to an average of 1.6 goals recently compared to the season average
Overview

TSG Hoffenheim (13th place, 0 points) vs Borussia Dortmund (5th place, 3 points)

Match on September 5, 2026, 3:30 PM at the PreZero Arena

Early Bundesliga encounter after the season start

Form

TSG Hoffenheim form is WDWLL

Last game ended in a defeat

Borussia Dortmund form is WLWWW

Most recent match was a victory

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Hoffenheim scores an average of 1.91 goals and concedes 1.53 goals

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.06 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded

Hoffenheim at home averages 1.94 goals per game

Dortmund away averages 2.00 goals per match

High scoring history at the PreZero Arena with 3.0 total goals per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Borussia Dortmund has 2 wins, TSG Hoffenheim has 1 win and 1 draw

Last duel ended 2:1 for TSG Hoffenheim on April 18, 2026

Goal difference of 5:7 from Hoffenheim's perspective

Key Players

Wouter Burger has an average rating of 7.12 with 4 goals and 6 assists

Tim Lemperle contributed 8 goals and 2 assists so far

Ozan Kabak convinces in defense with a rating of 6.95 and 4 goals

Serhou Guirassy scored 17 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Julian Ryerson shines with 16 assists in 31 appearances

Maximilian Beier registered 9 goals and 6 assists this season

Not nominated: Julian Brandt, Nico Schlotterbeck, Marcel Sabitzer

Goalkeepers

Oliver Baumann kept a clean sheet in 1 of the last 5 matches out of 34 total season appearances

Gregor Kobel played in all 5 of the last 5 matches with 15 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage for Hoffenheim at the PreZero Arena with an average of 1.94 home goals scored

Dortmund scores an average of 2.00 goals per away match

Historically, matches at this stadium produce an average of 3.0 goals

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