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VfB Stuttgart – FC Köln4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
VfB Stuttgart
1.65
Total xG
2.76
FC Köln
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | VfB Stuttgart | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −1.81 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.86 | |
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | +0.30 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Jamie Leweling on the bench (7 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Ramon Hendriks on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Chema Andrés not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Said El Mala not in squad (13 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Jakub Kamiński not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marius Bülter on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Eric Martel not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kristoffer Lund not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- VfB Stuttgart's strong home record averaging 2.14 goals per game meets Köln's vulnerable away defense
- Köln's squad is severely weakened with only 54% of their usual starting strength active due to the absence of top scorer Said El Mala
- The mathematical model projects a 48% home win probability with 1.65 expected goals for Stuttgart
Risks
- Köln struggles heavily on the road conceding an average of 2.54 goals per away match
- Both Stuttgart and Köln are missing several key players which could destabilize tactical consistency
- Stuttgart's defensive lines showed serious vulnerabilities during their recent 1-5 defeat against FC Bayern
All probabilities
Result
VfB Stuttgart48%
Draw27%
FC Köln24%
Double chance
VfB Stuttgart or draw76%
FC Köln or draw52%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Köln: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- FC Köln: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 19 total)
Lineups
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1 · FC Köln 4-3-3
VfB Stuttgart
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 24 J. Chabot
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
- 21 G. Prömel
- 6 A. Stiller
- 10 C. Führich
- 26 D. Undav
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 14 G. Mensah
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 5 T. Krauß
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 9 R. Ache
- 37 L. Maina
Substitutes
- 9 E. Demirović
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 16 A. Karazor
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 20 L. Stergiou
- 18 J. Leweling
- 44 L. Sauer
- 47 Y. Spalt
- 33 M. Funk
- 2 J. Schmied
- 30 M. Bülter
- 33 R. van den Berg
- 20 R. Zieler
- 6 E. Skhiri
- 3 B. Sosa
- 47 M. Moore
- 15 I. Rondić
- 11 R. Heskey
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