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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - FC Köln

09/04/2026, 06:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Total xG
2.8
FC Köln
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
VSFK

VfB Stuttgart

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-1.81
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Jamie Leweling on the bench (7 goals, 9 assists)
Ramon Hendriks on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Chema Andrés not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)

FC Köln

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.86
Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Said El Mala not in squad (13 goals, 5 assists)
Jakub Kamiński not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)
Marius Bülter on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Eric Martel not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Kristoffer Lund not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 53% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.39
+1.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Köln: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    FC Köln: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    FC Köln: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 19 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

27%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • VfB Stuttgart's strong home record averaging 2.14 goals per game meets Köln's vulnerable away defense
  • Köln's squad is severely weakened with only 54% of their usual starting strength active due to the absence of top scorer Said El Mala
  • The mathematical model projects a 48% home win probability with 1.65 expected goals for Stuttgart
Risk Factors
  • Köln struggles heavily on the road conceding an average of 2.54 goals per away match
  • Both Stuttgart and Köln are missing several key players which could destabilize tactical consistency
  • Stuttgart's defensive lines showed serious vulnerabilities during their recent 1-5 defeat against FC Bayern
Overview

VfB Stuttgart hosts FC Köln at the MHPArena

Bundesliga match on September 4, 2026, 8:30 PM

Stuttgart enters the second matchday in 18th place

Köln started their campaign successfully and currently sits in 6th place

Form

Stuttgart's recent form across all competitions is DDWDL

Their last fixture ended in a heavy 1-5 away defeat against FC Bayern München

Köln travels with an overall form string of LDLLW

They recorded a 3-2 home victory against TSG Hoffenheim in their last match

Statistics

Stuttgart averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game this season

Their home record is solid with an average of 2.14 goals scored and only 1.14 goals conceded

Köln averaged 1.46 goals scored away from home but conceded a weak average of 2.54 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

Stuttgart dominated the last 2 head-to-head meetings with 2 wins

Köln failed to secure a win in these direct matches

The historical goal difference is 5-2 in favor of Stuttgart

The last match on February 14, 2026 ended in a 3-1 home win for Stuttgart

Key Players

Stuttgart's Deniz Undav excels with 19 goals and 7 assists this season

Chris Führich contributed 7 goals and 7 assists from midfield

Maximilian Mittelstädt stands out with 6 goals and 4 assists from defense

For Köln Ragnar Ache leads the attack with 7 goals and 4 assists

Jan Thielmann registered 3 goals and 1 assist

Ísak Jóhannesson recorded 1 goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Fabian Bredlow has no league appearances for Stuttgart this season but rated at 6.92 in his last game

Marvin Schwäbe played 34 matches for Köln and kept 3 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place on the natural grass of MHPArena

Historically matches at this stadium produce an average of 3.0 goals per game

The venue features a both teams to score rate of 0.6

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