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Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - FSV Mainz 05

09/06/2026, 01:30 PM

0 : 5
Expected Goals
Hamburger SV
1.2
Total xG
2.5
FSV Mainz 05
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
HSFM0

Hamburger SV

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-1.88
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Fábio Vieira on the bench (7 goals, 5 assists)
Ransford Königsdörffer not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Albert Sambi Lokonga on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Bakery Jatta on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
90% of goal output missing (only 25% available)

FSV Mainz 05

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.24
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Paul Nebel not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Danny da Costa on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Silvan Widmer not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Dominik Kohr not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.31
+1.31
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FSV Mainz 05: 35% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 17)

  • 2
    FSV Mainz 05: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 3
    FSV Mainz 05: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Hamburger SV: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    FSV Mainz 05 with Phillip Tietz starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (24/6 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Only 25% of the goal threat available, without Fábi Vieira, Ransford Königsdörffer, Albert Sambi Lokonga, and Bakery Jatta
  • Hamburger SV averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches with a counter-attacking approach
  • Nadiem Amiri guides the Mainz midfield with an outstanding season rating of 7.41
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness of the Mainz defense with an average of 1.56 goals conceded per away match
  • FSV Mainz 05 averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession
  • Limited data on similar weather conditions
Overview

Hamburger SV host FSV Mainz 05 at the Volksparkstadion

Bundesliga match on September 6, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams are searching for their first win of the season

Mainz sit in 12th place with 1 point, while Hamburg are in 17th place with 0 points

Form

Hamburger SV shows a stable form trend (Stable) and scores consistently with around 1.3 goals per game

FSV Mainz 05 has a positive form trend (Positive) and is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)

Both teams have 2 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Hamburg scored 1.18 goals and conceded 1.59 goals on average last season

Mainz averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded

HSV scored 1.19 and conceded 1.05 goals on average at home

Mainz conceded 1.56 goals on average in away matches

Head-to-Head

Two recent head-to-head matches between the clubs

Hamburger SV lead with 1 win and 1 draw

The last direct meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on February 20, 2026

Hamburg scored 5 goals in these matches, while Mainz scored 1

Key Players

Nicolás Capaldo stabilizes the HSV midfield with a season rating of 6.84

Albert Grønbæk provides creative sparks with a rating of 6.98

For Mainz, Nadiem Amiri dictates play with 12 goals and a strong rating of 7.41

Striker Phillip Tietz shows rising form with 2 goals in his last five games

Goalkeepers

Daniel Heuer Fernandes plays for HSV with a season average rating of 6.87 and 6 clean sheets

Alexander Schwolow starts in goal for FSV Mainz 05

Influences

Home advantage for Hamburger SV at the Volksparkstadion on grass

The venue historical average stands at 2.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of the 5 previous matches at this stadium

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