Match report →
Hamburger SV – FSV Mainz 050 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Hamburger SV
1.23
Total xG
2.55
FSV Mainz 05
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hamburger SV | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −1.88 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Fábio Vieira on the bench (7 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Ransford Königsdörffer not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Albert Sambi Lokonga on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Bakery Jatta on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 90% of goal output missing (only 25% available) | ||
| Paul Nebel not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Danny da Costa on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Silvan Widmer not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dominik Kohr not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 85% available) |
Key factors
- Only 25% of the goal threat available, without Fábi Vieira, Ransford Königsdörffer, Albert Sambi Lokonga, and Bakery Jatta
- Hamburger SV averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches with a counter-attacking approach
- Nadiem Amiri guides the Mainz midfield with an outstanding season rating of 7.41
Risks
- Away weakness of the Mainz defense with an average of 1.56 goals conceded per away match
- FSV Mainz 05 averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession
- Limited data on similar weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Hamburger SV33%
Draw30%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Double chance
Hamburger SV or draw63%
FSV Mainz 05 or draw67%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FSV Mainz 05: 35% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 17)
- FSV Mainz 05: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- FSV Mainz 05: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
- Hamburger SV: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FSV Mainz 05 with Phillip Tietz starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (24/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1 · FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 24 N. Capaldo
- 33 S. Bornauw
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi
- 4 B. Nadir
- 21 N. Remberg
- 3 D. Wolfe
- 5 M. Adeline
- 11 A. Erlykke
- 9 T. Moffi
FSV Mainz 05
- 1 A. Schwolow
- 4 S. Posch
- 3 F. Gruber
- 48 K. Potulski
- 19 A. Caci
- 10 N. Amiri
- 6 K. Sano
- 7 J. Lee
- 2 P. Mwene
- 23 S. Becker
- 9 P. Tietz
Substitutes
- 20 F. Ferreira Vieira
- 15 Y. Yurary Poulsen
- 18 B. Jatta
- 27 P. Daka
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 37 L. Lemke
- 43 S. Nandja
- 22 K. Amoako
- 11 R. Königsdörffer
- 24 S. Kawasaki
- 21 D. Vieira da Costa
- 15 L. Maloney
- 16 S. Bell
- 17 B. Hollerbach
- 20 O. Ruoppi
- 40 M. Kinzig
- 47 R. Nakuzola
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →