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Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Elversberg

09/05/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 4
Expected Goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Elversberg
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BMELV

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack weakness (0.45x league average)
-1.64
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 3 league avg)
-1.13
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Haris Tabakovic not in squad (13 goals, 2 assists)
Yannik Engelhardt not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Rocco Reitz not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Kevin Stöger on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Nico Elvedi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 69% available)

Elversberg

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Borussia Mönchengladbach: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Gladbach's attacking threat is weakened as key starters like Haris Tabakovic are missing, leaving only 70% of their typical goal-scoring capacity available
  • Tactical setup: Gladbach averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Elversberg showed high efficiency with 6.0 shots on target in their last game
  • The mathematical model favors Gladbach with a calculated home win probability of 48%
Risk Factors
  • Gladbach are missing key players, leaving only 70% of their goal threat available
  • Restricted data availability for Elversberg player stats
  • Elversberg conceded 2 goals in their opening match
Overview

Borussia Mönchengladbach host Elversberg at the Stadion im Borussia-Park

Match on September 5, 2026, 3:30 PM

Gladbach are currently in 18th place with 0 points

The visitors from Elversberg travel as 6th in the table with 3 points

Form

Gladbach's recent form is DWLWL

Their last result was a defeat against RB Leipzig

Elversberg have a form of W

The visitors won their opening match against Leverkusen

Form explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Gladbach scored an average of 1.24 goals and conceded 1.56 goals last season

In home games their average was 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded

Elversberg scored 3 goals and conceded 2 in their only game so far

Both teams scored in 14 of Gladbach's 34 matches

Key Players

Kevin Diks scored 5 goals in 30 appearances with a rating of 6.94

Franck Honorat contributed 2 goals and 6 assists in 28 matches

Moritz Nicolas starts in goal and has a season rating of 7.14

Elversberg start with Nicolas Kristof, Jan Gyamerah and Lukas Pinckert

Goalkeepers

Moritz Nicolas guards the goal for Gladbach with a season average rating of 7.14

His recent form rating has risen to 7.47 over the last 5 games

Nicolas Kristof is the starting goalkeeper for the visitors

Influences

Matches at the Stadion im Borussia-Park averaged 2.6 total goals recently

The match will be played on grass

Gladbach hold a home record of 24 goals scored and 24 goals conceded

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