Match report →
Borussia Mönchengladbach – Elversberg3 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.75
Total xG
3.00
Elversberg
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.45x league average) | −1.64 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 3 league avg) | −1.13 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Haris Tabakovic not in squad (13 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yannik Engelhardt not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rocco Reitz not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Kevin Stöger on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nico Elvedi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Gladbach's attacking threat is weakened as key starters like Haris Tabakovic are missing, leaving only 70% of their typical goal-scoring capacity available
- Tactical setup: Gladbach averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Elversberg showed high efficiency with 6.0 shots on target in their last game
- The mathematical model favors Gladbach with a calculated home win probability of 48%
Risks
- Gladbach are missing key players, leaving only 70% of their goal threat available
- Restricted data availability for Elversberg player stats
- Elversberg conceded 2 goals in their opening match
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Mönchengladbach48%
Draw26%
Elversberg26%
Double chance
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw74%
Elversberg or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
Lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-2-3-1 · Elversberg 4-2-3-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 M. Nicolas
- 29 J. Scally
- 6 K. Itakura
- 4 K. Diks
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 16 P. Sander
- 34 M. Nguefack
- 9 F. Honorat
- 38 H. Bolin
- 36 W. Mohya
- 11 T. Kleindienst
Elversberg
- 20 N. Kristof
- 30 J. Gyamerah
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 40 F. Onyeka
- 39 W. Campbell
- 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
Substitutes
- 18 S. Machino
- 2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 25 R. Hack
- 7 K. Stöger
- 33 D. Batz
- 19 N. Kühn
- 5 J. Leszczyński
- 3 I. Lidberg
- 20 D. Herold
- 10 N. Darvich
- 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
- 3 F. Le Joncour
- 6 A. Condé
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 9 N. Futkeu
- 24 L. Schnellbacher
- 26 L. Sirch
- 28 T. Boss
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →