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Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Augsburg1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.45
Total xG
2.60
FC Augsburg
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −1.57 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.60 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Nathaniel Brown not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Arnaud Kalimuendo not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dimitrios Giannoulis not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Anton Kade not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Eintracht Frankfurt averaged 55.4% possession and 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, dominating the ball
- FC Augsburg was counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of 41.6% possession, yet averaged 6.8 shots on target
- The mathematical model projects a 42% home win probability and 1.45 expected goals for Frankfurt
Risks
- Dimitrios Giannoulis and Anton Kade are missing for Augsburg, leaving only 69% of their seasonal goal threat active
- FC Augsburg concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away match, showing severe defensive issues
- Eintracht Frankfurt is winless in 5 games, showing form issues with a DLLDD streak
All probabilities
Result
Eintracht Frankfurt42%
Draw29%
FC Augsburg28%
Double chance
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw72%
FC Augsburg or draw58%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Jonathan Burkardt: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Augsburg with Michael Gregoritsch starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/11 games, last 30)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 18)
- FC Augsburg: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2 · FC Augsburg 5-3-2
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 2 E. Baum
- 4 R. Koch
- 3 L. Brassier
- 26 K. Kosugi
- 20 R. Doan
- 27 M. Götze
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 42 C. Uzun
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
- 9 J. Burkardt
FC Augsburg
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 27 M. Wolf
- 40 N. Banks
- 5 C. Matsima
- 2 C. Brackelmann
- 16 H. Behrens
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 21 A.Ibrahimovic
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
Substitutes
- 6 O. Højlund
- 8 F. Chaïbi
- 29 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 22 T. Chandler
- 35 M. Razak Engholm Pimpong
- 5 O. Galdino Fernandes
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
- 37 J. Maluze
- 10 M. Kömür
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 20 A. Claude Maurice
- 22 N. Labrović
- 35 A. Juma Bah
- 9 R. Duarte Ribeiro
- 7 Seol Young-Woo
- 39 U. Ogundu
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