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Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt - FC Augsburg

09/06/2026, 03:30 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.4
Total xG
2.6
FC Augsburg
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
EFFA

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-1.57
Nathaniel Brown not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Arnaud Kalimuendo not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)

FC Augsburg

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.60
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.18
Dimitrios Giannoulis not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Anton Kade not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.31
+1.31
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Jonathan Burkardt: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 2
    FC Augsburg with Michael Gregoritsch starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/11 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)

  • 4
    Eintracht Frankfurt: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 18)

  • 5
    FC Augsburg: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

29%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Eintracht Frankfurt averaged 55.4% possession and 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, dominating the ball
  • FC Augsburg was counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of 41.6% possession, yet averaged 6.8 shots on target
  • The mathematical model projects a 42% home win probability and 1.45 expected goals for Frankfurt
Risk Factors
  • Dimitrios Giannoulis and Anton Kade are missing for Augsburg, leaving only 69% of their seasonal goal threat active
  • FC Augsburg concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away match, showing severe defensive issues
  • Eintracht Frankfurt is winless in 5 games, showing form issues with a DLLDD streak
Overview

Eintracht Frankfurt (11th place, 1 point) host FC Augsburg (6th place, 3 points) at Deutsche Bank Park

Bundesliga match on September 6, 2026, 5:30 PM

Both teams seek to establish themselves early in the season

Form

Eintracht Frankfurt is winless in 5 matches across all competitions with a DLLDD form

FC Augsburg shows more stability with a form of DWWLW

The visitors recently celebrated a clear 3-0 home win against Schalke 04

Statistics

Eintracht Frankfurt scored an average of 1.79 goals and conceded 1.91 last season

FC Augsburg averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per match

Augsburg is defensively vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Out of the last 4 head-to-head matches, 3 ended in a draw

Eintracht Frankfurt recorded 1 win, while FC Augsburg remains winless

The last meeting on April 25, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Jonathan Burkardt leads Frankfurt with 13 season goals, alongside Can Uzun who has 8 goals and 6 assists

Younes Ebnoutalib recently scored 3 goals in 3 games

For the visitors, Fabian Rieder with 6 goals and Michael Gregoritsch with 6 goals are key

Goalkeepers

Noah Atubolu guards Frankfurt's goal and recorded 7 clean sheets last season

Finn Dahmen starts for Augsburg with 5 clean sheets but is still waiting for a clean sheet away from home

Influences

Deutsche Bank Park promises goals, averaging 3.2 goals per game

80% of the recent home matches saw both teams score

The visitors' poor away record with 2.2 goals conceded per game strengthens the home advantage

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