Match report →
Paderborn – SC Freiburg0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Paderborn
2.75
Total xG
3.86
SC Freiburg
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paderborn | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.99 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.49 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.37 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.37 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- SC Freiburg currently scores more frequently (3.0) than their season average (1.8)
- SC Freiburg averaged 55.2% possession in recent matches
- Paderborn recorded 0.0 shots on target in their last match
Risks
- SC Freiburg conceded an average of 2.92 goals per away game
- Paderborn recorded 0.0 shots on target in their last match, indicating few chances
- Limited data available on head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Paderborn71%
Draw17%
SC Freiburg12%
Double chance
Paderborn or draw88%
SC Freiburg or draw29%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.554%
Under 3.546%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
4:1
6%
4:0
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
Lineups
Paderborn 3-5-2 · SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 17 L. Curda
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 40 G. Vidović
- 23 R. Obermair
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 9 R. Philippe
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 29 P. Treu
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 31 I. Matanovic
Substitutes
- 8 L. Đurić
- 30 S. Marino
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 6 T. Baack
- 7 O. Meier
- 24 Niklas Mohr
- 27 S. Tigges
- 29 C. Lippmann
- 17 L. Kübler
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 30 C. Günter
- 21 F. Müller
- 43 B. Ogbus
- 32 V. Grifo
- 22 C. Irié
- 42 K. Goto
- 27 B. Yilmaz
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