Bundesliga
Paderborn - SC Freiburg
09/05/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.8
3.9
1.1
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
7%4:1
6%4:0
5%What influences the xG?
Paderborn
SC Freiburg
League
The Lab
- 1SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 2SC Freiburg: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
71%
Draw
17%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Under 1.5
9%
Over 2.5
74%
Under 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
54%
Under 3.5
46%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
29%
No Draw
83%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- SC Freiburg currently scores more frequently (3.0) than their season average (1.8)
- SC Freiburg averaged 55.2% possession in recent matches
- Paderborn recorded 0.0 shots on target in their last match
Risk Factors
- SC Freiburg conceded an average of 2.92 goals per away game
- Paderborn recorded 0.0 shots on target in their last match, indicating few chances
- Limited data available on head-to-head matches
Overview
Paderborn (11th place, 1 point) host SC Freiburg (2nd place, 3 points) at the Home Deluxe Arena
Bundesliga match on September 5, 2026, 3:30 PM
The visitors arrive as favorites after an opening win
Form
Paderborn started with a draw (Form: D)
SC Freiburg shows strong form (Form: WLWWW)
The visitors recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their recent games
Freiburg's trend is positive following their latest 4-1 victory
Statistics
Paderborn kept a clean sheet in their opening match with 0 goals scored and 0 conceded
Paderborn recorded 49% possession and 0.0 shots on target in their last match
SC Freiburg scored 51 goals last season (avg. 1.5)
The visitors conceded an average of 2.92 goals per away game with 35 goals conceded in 12 away matches
SC Freiburg averaged 55.2% possession and 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
Freiburg had both teams score in 21 of their matches last season
Key Players
Marvin Pieringer stood on the pitch in 1 match
Rayan Philippe played 1 match at the venue
Gabriel Vidovic recorded 1 appearance as well
Igor Matanovic scored 11 goals and provided 2 assists this season
Yuito Suzuki has 4 goals and 3 assists with a recent rating of 7.92
Matthias Ginter supports the defense with a 6.96 rating, 3 goals, and 4 assists
Goalkeepers
Nahuel Noll plays in goal for Paderborn and kept a clean sheet in the opening match
Mio Backhaus is in goal for Freiburg, which recorded 6 clean sheets last season
Influences
Paderborn has 7 days of rest since their last match
Freiburg has 6 days of recovery since their last game
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 71%
The model also calculates 2.75 expected goals for the home team