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Bundesliga

Schalke 04 - FC Bayern München

09/05/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Schalke 04
2.6
Total xG
4.7
FC Bayern München
2.1
Most Likely Scores

2:2

7%

2:1

6%

3:2

6%

3:1

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
S0FBM

Schalke 04

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.93
Full strength squad available

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.83x league average)
+1.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
-0.14
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.13
Harry Kane on the bench (36 goals, 5 assists)
Michael Olise on the bench (15 goals, 19 assists)
Leon Goretzka not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Jamal Musiala on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Josip Stanisic on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Min-jae Kim on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Weak away record (2.3 vs 3.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match)
+1.58
+1.58
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    FC Bayern München: 4 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (10 points rescued)

  • 3
    FC Bayern München: 13 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SC Freiburg: 3 goals (81', 90+2', 90+9')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

20%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

96%

Under 1.5

4%

Over 2.5

85%

Under 2.5

15%

Over 3.5

69%

Under 3.5

31%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

82%

No

18%

Key Factors
  • Major squad impact for Bayern: Only 63% of the usual starting lineup strength available with six key players missing, including Harry Kane and Michael Olise
  • Bayern dominated recently with an average of 67% possession and 7.6 shots on target per match
  • The mathematical model calculates a high probability of 68% for a Schalke home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • FC Bayern's goal production is stalling recently, averaging 3.0 goals compared to their season average of 3.5
  • Schalke's defense proved highly vulnerable after conceding 3 goals in their last match
  • Limited data available regarding the individual player statistics of Schalke 04
Overview

Schalke 04 (17th place, 0 points) host FC Bayern München (4th place, 3 points) at the Veltins-Arena

Bundesliga match on September 5, 2026, 6:30 PM

Schalke aim to secure their first points after a disappointing start

Bayern enter the clash as favorites

The mathematical analysis predicts 2.60 home goals for Schalke and 2.13 goals for the visitors

Form

Schalke 04 with form L

Last match ended in a 0-3 defeat against Augsburg

FC Bayern München with form DDWWW

Bayern secured 3 wins and 2 draws recently

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Schalke conceded an average of 3 goals so far

Bayern scored an average of 3.59 goals per game last season while conceding 1.06

Bayern averaged 3.60 goals per away match

The Munich defense conceded an average of 1.13 goals on the road

Key Players

Moussa Sylla starts in the lineup for Schalke 04

Dejan Ljubicic and Robin Gosens occupy the midfield for the hosts

Luis Díaz has already scored 15 goals and provided 14 assists for Bayern

Joshua Kimmich leads the midfield with 2 goals and 8 assists

Dayot Upamecano solidifies the defense with an average rating of 6.94

Goalkeepers

Loris Karius is in goal for Schalke 04

Manuel Neuer guarded the Bayern goal in 22 season appearances

Neuer has an average rating of 6.63

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Veltins-Arena

Schalke has 6 days of rest since their last match

Bayern enters the game with 8 days of recovery time

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