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Schalke 04 – FC Bayern München0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Schalke 04
2.60
Total xG
4.73
FC Bayern München
2.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Schalke 04 | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.58 | +1.58 |
| Attack strength (1.83x league average) | +1.07 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.93 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Harry Kane on the bench (36 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Michael Olise on the bench (15 goals, 19 assists) | ||
| Leon Goretzka not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jamal Musiala on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Josip Stanisic on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Min-jae Kim on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Weak away record (2.3 vs 3.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Major squad impact for Bayern: Only 63% of the usual starting lineup strength available with six key players missing, including Harry Kane and Michael Olise
- Bayern dominated recently with an average of 67% possession and 7.6 shots on target per match
- The mathematical model calculates a high probability of 68% for a Schalke home win or draw
Risks
- FC Bayern's goal production is stalling recently, averaging 3.0 goals compared to their season average of 3.5
- Schalke's defense proved highly vulnerable after conceding 3 goals in their last match
- Limited data available regarding the individual player statistics of Schalke 04
All probabilities
Result
Schalke 0449%
Draw20%
FC Bayern München32%
Double chance
Schalke 04 or draw68%
FC Bayern München or draw52%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.596%
Under 1.54%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Over 3.569%
Under 3.531%
Both teams score
Yes82%
No18%
Most likely scores
2:2
7%
2:1
6%
3:2
6%
3:1
6%
1:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Bayern München: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: 4 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (10 points rescued)
- FC Bayern München: 13 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SC Freiburg: 3 goals (81', 90+2', 90+9')
Lineups
Schalke 04 5-4-1 · FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1
Schalke 04
- 1 L. Karius
- 29 E. Dina Ebimbe
- 5 T. Becker
- 25 N. Katić
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 8 R. Gosens
- 21 D. Ljubicic
- 23 S. El-Faouzi
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 9 M. Sylla
FC Bayern München
- 1 M. Neuer
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 4 J. Tah
- 19 A. Davies
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 42 L. Karl
- 11 N. Brown
- 14 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
Substitutes
- 39 M. Wöber
- 22 K. Müller
- 20 J. Chikwubuike Adamu
- 10 E. Džeko
- 19 K. Karaman
- 33 V. Becker
- 14 J. Bachmann
- 43 M. Ayhan
- 38 L. Vozar
- 10 J. Musiala
- 3 M. Kim
- 8 T. Bischof
- 9 H. Kane
- 17 M. Olise
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 21 H. Ito
- 40 J. Urbig
- 39 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
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