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Bundesliga

RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV

09/13/2026, 01:30 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
RB Leipzig
2.4
Total xG
3.3
Hamburger SV
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

3:0

9%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
RLHS

RB Leipzig

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
-0.82
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Ridle Baku on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Nicolas Seiwald on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match)

Hamburger SV

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.75
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.39
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Fábio Vieira on the bench (7 goals, 5 assists)
Bakery Jatta on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 51% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.34
+1.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    RB Leipzig: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    RB Leipzig: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 22)

  • 3
    Hamburger SV: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    RB Leipzig: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

19%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

31%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact for HSV: Only 51% of seasonal goal threat is available without Fábio Vieira and Bakery Jatta
  • Away weakness meets home potential: Hamburg concedes an extreme average of 2.46 goals per away match
  • High mathematical winning chance: The calculated home win probability stands at 69%
Risk Factors
  • RB Leipzig with only 3 days of rest since their last match at a clear disadvantage against Hamburg with 7 days of rest
  • Leipzig's declining goal production with 1.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.0
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

RB Leipzig (12th place, 3 points) host Hamburger SV (17th place, 0 points) at the Red Bull Arena

Bundesliga match on September 13, 2026, 3:30 PM

A clear matchup between the favorites and an underdog with zero points

Form

RB Leipzig with a form of WLWLL in their last five matches

The home side suffered two consecutive defeats recently

Hamburger SV travels with a form of WWDLL

Both teams lost their last matches in league play

Statistics

Leipzig score an average of 1.90 goals at home and concede 0.95 goals

Hamburg concede an average of 2.46 goals per away match

The away defensive record clearly works against the visitors

Head-to-Head

Two direct head-to-head matches in history

Both matches ended in home victories for Leipzig

Leipzig won the last encounter 2-1 on March 1, 2026

Key Players

David Raum stands out as a defender with 3 goals and 7 assists in 30 matches

Antonio Nusa contributed 4 goals and 4 assists in 31 games

Brajan Gruda has 3 goals and 3 assists from 13 appearances

For the visitors Albert Sambi Lokonga scored 5 goals in 26 games

Nicolás Capaldo recorded 1 goal and 3 assists in 26 matches

Albert Grønbæk has 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 appearances

Goalkeepers

Maarten Vandevoordt plays in goal for Leipzig with an average rating of 6.80

Daniel Heuer Fernandes guards the visitors' goal with a rating of 6.87

Leipzig secured 6 clean sheets at home this season

Influences

Played on natural grass at the Red Bull Arena

Stadium stats show an average of 2.4 goals per match

Leipzig has strong home records with 1.90 goals scored per home match

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