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RB Leipzig – Hamburger SV5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
RB Leipzig
2.37
Total xG
3.26
Hamburger SV
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.34 | +1.34 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.82 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.75 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.39 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Ridle Baku on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Nicolas Seiwald on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Fábio Vieira on the bench (7 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Bakery Jatta on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Severe squad impact for HSV: Only 51% of seasonal goal threat is available without Fábio Vieira and Bakery Jatta
- Away weakness meets home potential: Hamburg concedes an extreme average of 2.46 goals per away match
- High mathematical winning chance: The calculated home win probability stands at 69%
Risks
- RB Leipzig with only 3 days of rest since their last match at a clear disadvantage against Hamburg with 7 days of rest
- Leipzig's declining goal production with 1.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.0
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
RB Leipzig69%
Draw19%
Hamburger SV11%
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw89%
Hamburger SV or draw31%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
8%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- RB Leipzig: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- RB Leipzig: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 22)
- Hamburger SV: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- RB Leipzig: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
Lineups
RB Leipzig 4-3-3 · Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 8 F. Ouedraogo
- 10 B. Gruda
- 27 T. Gomis
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 43 S. Nandja
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 24 N. Capaldo
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 21 N. Remberg
- 3 D. Wolfe
- 27 P. Daka
- 11 A. Erlykke
- 15 Y. Yurary Poulsen
Substitutes
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 17 R. Baku
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 3 M. Esteve
- 9 M. Guiu Paz
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 17 W. Omari
- 20 F. Ferreira Vieira
- 18 B. Jatta
- 4 B. Nadir
- 9 T. Moffi
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 37 L. Lemke
- 5 M. Adeline
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