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FC Augsburg – Bayer 04 Leverkusen2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Augsburg
1.71
Total xG
3.03
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Augsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.49 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.33 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.33 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Anton Kade not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Patrik Schick on the bench (16 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alejandro Grimaldo not in squad (8 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Malik Tillman on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Robert Andrich on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- FC Augsburg averaged 7.6 shots on target in recent matches, showcasing strong offensive power
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen averaged a dominant 59.4% possession in their recent fixtures
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 72% for the home double chance (win or draw)
Risks
- Patrik Schick, Alejandro Grimaldo, Malik Tillman, Robert Andrich are missing for the visitors, leaving only 59% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen conceded an average of 1.87 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
FC Augsburg45%
Draw26%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen28%
Double chance
FC Augsburg or draw72%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw55%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Augsburg with Michael Gregoritsch starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (14/10 games, last 30)
- FC Augsburg: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
FC Augsburg
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 40 N. Banks
- 5 C. Matsima
- 2 C. Brackelmann
- 27 M. Wolf
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 16 H. Behrens
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 21 A.Ibrahimovic
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1 M. Flekken
- 4 J. Quansah
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 2 F. Medina
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 6 I. Fernández Carballo
- 24 A. García Serrano
- 19 M. Diaby
- 30 I. Maza
- 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
- 35 C. Kofane
Substitutes
- 10 M. Kömür
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 20 A. Claude Maurice
- 22 N. Labrović
- 35 A. Juma Bah
- 9 R. Duarte Ribeiro
- 7 Seol Young-Woo
- 39 U. Ogundu
- 28 J. Blaswich
- 17 L. Vázquez Iglesias
- 10 M. Tillman
- 8 R. Andrich
- 7 J. Hofmann
- 11 M. Terrier
- 14 P. Schick
- 5 L. Badé
- 20 G. Doué
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