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Bundesliga

FC Augsburg - Bayer 04 Leverkusen

09/12/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Augsburg
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FAB0L

FC Augsburg

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.33
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.33
Anton Kade not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.49
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.15
Patrik Schick on the bench (16 goals, 3 assists)
Alejandro Grimaldo not in squad (8 goals, 8 assists)
Malik Tillman on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Robert Andrich on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.45
+1.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Augsburg with Michael Gregoritsch starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (14/10 games, last 30)

  • 2
    FC Augsburg: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

26%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • FC Augsburg averaged 7.6 shots on target in recent matches, showcasing strong offensive power
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen averaged a dominant 59.4% possession in their recent fixtures
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 72% for the home double chance (win or draw)
Risk Factors
  • Patrik Schick, Alejandro Grimaldo, Malik Tillman, Robert Andrich are missing for the visitors, leaving only 59% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen conceded an average of 1.87 goals per away game this season
Overview

FC Augsburg host Bayer 04 Leverkusen at the WWK Arena

Bundesliga match on September 12, 2026, 3:30 PM

Augsburg currently sit in 1st place with 6 points

Leverkusen are currently in 8th place with 3 points

The home team enters this clash as league leaders

Form

FC Augsburg are in strong shape with the form WWLWW

Recently the team recorded 4 wins and 1 loss across all competitions

Bayer 04 Leverkusen show the form WLDLW

The visitors registered 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

FC Augsburg have scored 45 goals this season, averaging 1.32 goals per game

The hosts' defense conceded an average of 1.79 goals per match

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have scored 68 goals this season, averaging 2.00 per game

The visitors conceded an average of 1.38 goals per match

Augsburg kept 5 clean sheets, while Leverkusen managed 8 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is balanced over the past 4 matches

Both Augsburg and Leverkusen achieved 2 wins each

The last encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for the home team

A total of 9 goals were scored in these clashes

Key Players

Fabian Rieder scored 6 goals and provided 3 assists this season with a 6.96 rating

Michael Gregoritsch contributed 6 goals and 2 assists

Robin Fellhauer scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists

Not nominated for the hosts: Anton Kade with 6 goals and 0 assists

Aleix García recorded 3 goals and 8 assists this season with a 7.42 rating

Ibrahim Maza has 3 goals and 4 assists with a 7.12 rating

Christian Kofane contributed 5 goals and 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Finn Dahmen starts in goal for FC Augsburg and kept 5 clean sheets with a rating of 6.77

Mark Flekken guards the goal for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and managed 8 clean sheets with a rating of 6.83

Influences

The WWK Arena historically features a high goal rate, averaging 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played at this stadium

Augsburg achieved good recent results on the natural grass surface of the WWK Arena

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