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FC Union Berlin – Schalke 041 : 3
Why the model thinks so
FC Union Berlin
1.88
Total xG
3.54
Schalke 04
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Union Berlin | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.77 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.63 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −0.48 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.31 | |
| Oliver Burke not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ilyas Ansah not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Danilho Doekhi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| András Schäfer on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Union Berlin averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- High-scoring venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei averages 3.8 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 rate
- Offensive uptick: Union Berlin are scoring more frequently with 2.4 recent goals compared to a 1.4 season average
Risks
- Oliver Burke, Ilyas Ansah, Danilho Doekhi, András Schäfer missing, only 64% of goal threat available
- Schalke's lack of goals: Zero goals scored in the league campaign so far
- Limited data availability for Schalke 04 player statistics
All probabilities
Result
FC Union Berlin42%
Draw24%
Schalke 0434%
Double chance
FC Union Berlin or draw67%
Schalke 04 or draw58%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
4%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Union Berlin: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 18)
- FC Union Berlin: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Union Berlin 4-3-1-2 · Schalke 04 3-4-2-1
FC Union Berlin
- 1 F. Rønnow
- 18 J. Juranović
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 2 F. Uduokhai
- 15 T. Rothe
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 6 A. Kemlein
- 9 L. Burcu
- 8 R. Khedira
- 29 E. Latte Lath
- 11 W. Jeong
Schalke 04
- 1 L. Karius
- 5 T. Becker
- 25 N. Katić
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 21 D. Ljubicic
- 23 S. El-Faouzi
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 8 R. Gosens
- 19 K. Karaman
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 20 J. Chikwubuike Adamu
Substitutes
- 13 A. Schafer
- 24 R. Skov
- 31 M. Raab
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 21 T. Skarke
- 19 J. Haberer
- 27 M. Ljubičić
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
- 49 L. Güther
- 39 M. Wöber
- 22 K. Müller
- 29 E. Dina Ebimbe
- 7 H. Hwang
- 10 E. Džeko
- 33 V. Becker
- 14 J. Bachmann
- 43 M. Ayhan
- 38 L. Vozar
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