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Bundesliga

FC Union Berlin - Schalke 04

09/11/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
FC Union Berlin
1.9
Total xG
3.5
Schalke 04
1.7
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

3:2

4%
What influences the xG?
FUBS0

FC Union Berlin

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.63
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2.4 league avg)
-0.48
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.31
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.31
Oliver Burke not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Ilyas Ansah not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Danilho Doekhi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
András Schäfer on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Schalke 04

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.77
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.45
+1.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Union Berlin: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    FC Union Berlin: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 18)

  • 3
    FC Union Berlin: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

24%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Union Berlin averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • High-scoring venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei averages 3.8 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 rate
  • Offensive uptick: Union Berlin are scoring more frequently with 2.4 recent goals compared to a 1.4 season average
Risk Factors
  • Oliver Burke, Ilyas Ansah, Danilho Doekhi, András Schäfer missing, only 64% of goal threat available
  • Schalke's lack of goals: Zero goals scored in the league campaign so far
  • Limited data availability for Schalke 04 player statistics
Overview

FC Union Berlin host Schalke 04 at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Bundesliga match on September 11, 2026, 8:30 PM

Both teams have started with just one point from two matches and sit near the bottom of the table

A crucial early-season fixture to avoid falling further behind

Form

FC Union Berlin's form is DWWDL

Two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches

Schalke 04 began their campaign with an LD form

One draw and one loss indicate a challenging start to the season

Statistics

Union Berlin averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per match

Schalke 04 are yet to score this season while conceding three goals

The venue has historically seen an average of 3.8 goals per match

Both teams have scored in 80% of the matches at this stadium

Key Players

Leopold Querfeld stands out in defence with an average rating of 6.94

Rani Khedira anchors the midfield with five goals scored this season

Woo-yeong Jeong adds offensive danger with four goals and a 6.65 average rating

Goalkeepers

Frederik Rønnow starts for Union Berlin showing stable form with a 6.67 rating

Loris Karius is the starting goalkeeper for Schalke 04

Influences

The home advantage at the Alte Försterei historically yields high-scoring matches with 3.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the fixtures at this venue

The game will be played on natural grass

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