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Bundesliga

TSG Hoffenheim - VfB Stuttgart

09/12/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
TSG Hoffenheim
1.8
Total xG
3.2
VfB Stuttgart
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
THVS

TSG Hoffenheim

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
-0.66
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.64
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Andrej Kramaric not in squad (14 goals, 6 assists)
Fisnik Asllani not in squad (10 goals, 8 assists)
Bazoumana Touré not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 55% available)

VfB Stuttgart

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.16
Deniz Undav not in squad (19 goals, 7 assists)
Jamie Leweling on the bench (7 goals, 9 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.45
+1.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    VfB Stuttgart: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    TSG Hoffenheim: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 11 games)

  • 4
    TSG Hoffenheim: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • The model calculates a home win probability of 48% and expects 1.83 goals for Hoffenheim
  • Hoffenheim recently averaged 5.2 shots on target with a dominant 59% possession
  • Historically high goal rate at the PreZero Arena averaging 3.6 goals per match
Risk Factors
  • VfB Stuttgart with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Andrej Kramaric, Fisnik Asllani, and Bazoumana Touré are missing, with only 56% of regular goal-scoring threat available
  • Deniz Undav and Jamie Leweling are missing, with only 63% of offensive strength available
Overview

TSG Hoffenheim host VfB Stuttgart at the PreZero Arena

Bundesliga fixture on September 12, 2026, 3:30 PM

Hoffenheim is currently 16th with 0 points after two defeats

Stuttgart sits in 10th place with 3 points

The home side is already under early pressure this season

Form

TSG Hoffenheim shows a weak form of DWLLL with three consecutive losses

VfB Stuttgart is in better shape with WDLWW and two wins in a row

Hoffenheim recently lost a close match 2-3 against Borussia Dortmund

Stuttgart comes off a 3-1 home win against Viking

Statistics

Hoffenheim averaged 1.91 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded last season

At home Hoffenheim scored 1.94 goals per match on average

Stuttgart averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded last season

In away matches Stuttgart conceded an average of 1.65 goals

Head-to-Head

The last 4 head-to-head matches all ended in a draw

Goal difference is completely balanced at 5-5

Their last meeting on May 2, 2026, ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw

Neither side has managed to dominate this fixture recently

Key Players

Tim Lemperle has 8 goals and 2 assists this season with a rating of 6.85

Vladimír Coufal provides 8 assists and 1 goal with a rating of 7.09

Ozan Kabak stabilizes the defense and scored 4 goals with a rating of 6.95

Ermedin Demirovic is Stuttgart's top threat with 12 goals and 3 assists

Chris Führich contributed 7 goals and 7 assists with a rating of 7.10

Maximilian Mittelstädt shines in defense with 6 goals, 4 assists, and a rating of 7.27

Goalkeepers

Oliver Baumann played 34 games for TSG Hoffenheim and achieved 7 clean sheets

Fabian Bredlow made 2 appearances in recent games with a rating of 6.94

Stuttgart's defense kept 11 clean sheets over the entire season

Influences

Hoffenheim's home advantage is backed by 1.94 goals scored per home match

Matches at the PreZero Arena averaged a high 3.6 goals recently

The grass pitch offers familiar playing conditions for both sides

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