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TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
TSG Hoffenheim
1.83
Total xG
3.16
VfB Stuttgart
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | TSG Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.66 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.64 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Andrej Kramaric not in squad (14 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Fisnik Asllani not in squad (10 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Bazoumana Touré not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Deniz Undav not in squad (19 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Jamie Leweling on the bench (7 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The model calculates a home win probability of 48% and expects 1.83 goals for Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim recently averaged 5.2 shots on target with a dominant 59% possession
- Historically high goal rate at the PreZero Arena averaging 3.6 goals per match
Risks
- VfB Stuttgart with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Andrej Kramaric, Fisnik Asllani, and Bazoumana Touré are missing, with only 56% of regular goal-scoring threat available
- Deniz Undav and Jamie Leweling are missing, with only 63% of offensive strength available
All probabilities
Result
TSG Hoffenheim48%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart26%
Double chance
TSG Hoffenheim or draw74%
VfB Stuttgart or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- VfB Stuttgart: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 11 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 18)
Lineups
TSG Hoffenheim 4-2-3-1 · VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 5 O. Kabak
- 21 A. Hajdari
- 39 M. Rots
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 18 W. Burger
- 20 B. Conté
- 10 A. Hložek
- 14 A. Daghim
- 19 T. Lemperle
VfB Stuttgart
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 24 J. Chabot
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
- 21 G. Prömel
- 6 A. Stiller
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 9 E. Demirović
- 10 C. Führich
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
Substitutes
- 8 P. Wimmer
- 15 V. Gendrey
- 2 R. Hranáč
- 11 F. Asllani
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 9 M. Moerstedt
- 37 L. Philipp
- 28 K. Machida
- 17 N. De Cat
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 16 A. Karazor
- 26 D. Undav
- 20 L. Stergiou
- 18 J. Leweling
- 44 L. Sauer
- 37 M. Herwerth
- 47 Y. Spalt
- 33 M. Funk
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