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Borussia Dortmund – Paderborn3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Dortmund
2.14
Total xG
3.85
Paderborn
1.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Dortmund | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −1.06 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.81 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Maximilian Beier on the bench (9 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Felix Nmecha on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Class gap in form: Dortmund is riding a 5-match winning streak while Paderborn remains winless
- Tactical dominance: Dortmund averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Paderborn's 1.5
- Mathematical prediction: The model predicts a home win with a 47% probability and 2.14 expected goals
Risks
- Low offensive threat from the visitors with an average of only 1.5 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history and visitors' player statistics
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Dortmund47%
Draw23%
Paderborn30%
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw70%
Paderborn or draw53%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.554%
Under 3.546%
Both teams score
Yes73%
No27%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Borussia Dortmund: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Villarreal: 3 goals (80', 85', 90+3')
- Borussia Dortmund: 9 of 25 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1 · Paderborn 3-1-4-2
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 25 J. Veerman
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 24 D. Svensson
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 9 S. Guirassy
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 17 L. Curda
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 40 G. Vidović
- 23 R. Obermair
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 30 S. Marino
Substitutes
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 33 A. Meyer
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 14 M. Beier
- 5 R. Bensebaini
- 49 L. Reggiani
- 41 M. Albert
- 36 K. de Almeida
- 8 L. Đurić
- 9 R. Philippe
- 20 F. Götze
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 6 T. Baack
- 7 O. Meier
- 27 S. Tigges
- 29 C. Lippmann
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