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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn

09/12/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Borussia Dortmund
2.1
Total xG
3.9
Paderborn
1.7
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
BDPAD

Borussia Dortmund

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
-1.06
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.14
Maximilian Beier on the bench (9 goals, 6 assists)
Felix Nmecha on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Paderborn

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.81
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.45
+1.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)

  • 2
    Borussia Dortmund: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Villarreal: 3 goals (80', 85', 90+3')

  • 3
    Borussia Dortmund: 9 of 25 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

23%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

91%

Under 1.5

9%

Over 2.5

74%

Under 2.5

26%

Over 3.5

54%

Under 3.5

46%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

73%

No

27%

Key Factors
  • Class gap in form: Dortmund is riding a 5-match winning streak while Paderborn remains winless
  • Tactical dominance: Dortmund averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Paderborn's 1.5
  • Mathematical prediction: The model predicts a home win with a 47% probability and 2.14 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Low offensive threat from the visitors with an average of only 1.5 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history and visitors' player statistics
Overview

Borussia Dortmund (3rd place, 6 points) host Paderborn (13th place, 1 point) at the Signal Iduna Park

Bundesliga match on September 12, 2026, 3:30 PM

The hosts enter this clash as clear favorites

Form

Borussia Dortmund is in flawless form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches

Hosts' form: WWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Paderborn is still waiting for their first win of the season with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Visitors' form: DL

Statistics

Dortmund scores an average of 2.06 goals per game this season and concedes 1.0 goals

The hosts' attack is currently more clinical, scoring 2.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.1

Paderborn has not scored a goal yet this season and concedes an average of 0.5 goals

The visitors average only 0.9 expected goals per game over their last two matches

Key Players

Serhou Guirassy with 17 goals this season and 6 goals in his last 5 matches

Nico Schlotterbeck impresses with a season rating of 7.32 and 5 goals

Julian Ryerson has already provided 16 assists this season

Marvin Pieringer with 2 appearances at this venue and an average rating of 6.0

Gabriel Vidovic with 1 played match at this venue

Santiago CastaƱeda also has 1 game recorded at this venue

Goalkeepers

Gregor Kobel guards the hosts' goal and has recorded 15 clean sheets this season

Over the last 5 matches, Kobel achieved an average rating of 7.03

Nahuel Noll is in goal for the visitors, who have recorded 1 clean sheet so far this season

Influences

Strong home record for Dortmund with an average of 2.11 goals scored and 0.84 conceded in their own stadium

The Signal Iduna Park averages 3.4 goals per match

The match will be played on natural grass

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