Match report →
FSV Mainz 05 – Eintracht Frankfurt1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
FSV Mainz 05
1.58
Total xG
2.80
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.99 | |
| Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.57 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Paul Nebel not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Danny da Costa on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Dominik Kohr not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Nathaniel Brown not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Arnaud Kalimuendo not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mainz in strong form: The home team is currently scoring more frequently (2.5 goals) than their season average (1.44 goals)
- Tactical offensive threat: Mainz recently averaged 6.0 shots on target, while Frankfurt averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Weakened Frankfurt squad: Without Nathaniel Brown and Arnaud Kalimuendo, only 79% of the normal starting XI strength is available
Risks
- Frankfurt's vulnerable away defense concedes an average of 2.11 goals per away match
- Missing starting strength for Mainz: Important alternatives are missing without Paul Nebel, Danny da Costa, and Dominik Kohr
- Defensive absence: Dominik Kohr is unavailable due to an injury
All probabilities
Result
FSV Mainz 0544%
Draw28%
Eintracht Frankfurt28%
Double chance
FSV Mainz 05 or draw72%
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw56%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (13 points lost)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Jonathan Burkardt: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FSV Mainz 05: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- FSV Mainz 05: 65% of all goals in the first half (13 of 20, last 12 games)
- FSV Mainz 05: 30% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 20)
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2 · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4-2-1
FSV Mainz 05
- 27 R. Zentner
- 4 S. Posch
- 3 F. Gruber
- 48 K. Potulski
- 6 K. Sano
- 19 A. Caci
- 7 J. Lee
- 10 N. Amiri
- 2 P. Mwene
- 23 S. Becker
- 9 P. Tietz
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 37 J. Maluze
- 4 R. Koch
- 3 L. Brassier
- 2 E. Baum
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 26 K. Kosugi
- 20 R. Doan
- 42 C. Uzun
- 9 J. Burkardt
Substitutes
- 11 R. Königsdörffer
- 24 S. Kawasaki
- 21 D. Vieira da Costa
- 15 L. Maloney
- 16 S. Bell
- 17 B. Hollerbach
- 20 O. Ruoppi
- 1 A. Schwolow
- 47 R. Nakuzola
- 34 N. Collins
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
- 29 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 31 P. Arrhov
- 27 M. Götze
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 22 T. Chandler
- 35 M. Razak Engholm Pimpong
- 5 O. Galdino Fernandes
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