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Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - Eintracht Frankfurt

09/12/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
FSV Mainz 05
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FM0EF

FSV Mainz 05

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.99
Rising form (2.5 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Paul Nebel not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Danny da Costa on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Dominik Kohr not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Eintracht Frankfurt

Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.58
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.57
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Nathaniel Brown not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Arnaud Kalimuendo not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.45
+1.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (13 points lost)

  • 2
    Eintracht Frankfurt: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Jonathan Burkardt: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    FSV Mainz 05: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 5
    FSV Mainz 05: 65% of all goals in the first half (13 of 20, last 12 games)

  • 6
    FSV Mainz 05: 30% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 20)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Mainz in strong form: The home team is currently scoring more frequently (2.5 goals) than their season average (1.44 goals)
  • Tactical offensive threat: Mainz recently averaged 6.0 shots on target, while Frankfurt averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Weakened Frankfurt squad: Without Nathaniel Brown and Arnaud Kalimuendo, only 79% of the normal starting XI strength is available
Risk Factors
  • Frankfurt's vulnerable away defense concedes an average of 2.11 goals per away match
  • Missing starting strength for Mainz: Important alternatives are missing without Paul Nebel, Danny da Costa, and Dominik Kohr
  • Defensive absence: Dominik Kohr is unavailable due to an injury
Overview

FSV Mainz 05 (5th place, 4 points) host Eintracht Frankfurt (14th place, 1 point) at the Mewa Arena

Match on September 12, 2026, 3:30 PM

Mainz starts the season unbeaten, while Frankfurt is under pressure after a slow start

Form

Mainz is in stable form (Form: WLWDW - W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently achieved a clear 5-0 victory against Hamburger SV

Frankfurt is winless in their last 5 matches (Form: LLDDL)

Most recently suffered a 1-4 defeat against FC Augsburg

Statistics

Mainz averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per match

Frankfurt scored 1.79 goals on average but also conceded 1.91 goals per game

Last season Frankfurt had 25 BTTS games and 23 matches with over 2.5 goals

Mainz recorded a balanced home record with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Mainz with 2 wins, Frankfurt with 1 win and 1 draw

Mainz scored 6 goals, Frankfurt 4 goals

The last encounter ended 2-1 for Mainz on March 22, 2026

Key Players

Nadiem Amiri with 12 goals and 2 assists as a goalscoring midfielder

Phillip Tietz is in strong form with 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Sheraldo Becker contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 games

Jonathan Burkardt is Frankfurt's top attacker with 13 season goals and 4 in his last 5 games

Can Uzun shines in midfield with 8 goals and 6 assists this season

Ritsu Doan has scored 5 goals and provided 5 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Robin Zentner played 10 season matches for Mainz

Frankfurt recorded 7 clean sheets in total this season

Mainz has managed 4 clean sheets so far this term

Influences

The match takes place at the Mewa Arena on a grass pitch

The historical goal average at this stadium is 3.2 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of historical matches at this venue

Both teams scored in 40% of those games

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