🇩🇪

Bundesliga

Elversberg - FC Bayern München

09/13/2026, 03:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Elversberg
2.2
Total xG
4.3
FC Bayern München
2.1
Most Likely Scores

2:2

7%

2:1

7%

1:2

7%

3:2

5%

2:3

5%
What influences the xG?
ELVFBM

Elversberg

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.68
Full strength squad available

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+0.73
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.38
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Luis Díaz on the bench (15 goals, 14 assists)
Konrad Laimer on the bench (3 goals, 9 assists)
Joshua Kimmich on the bench (2 goals, 8 assists)
Jamal Musiala on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Jonathan Tah on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Alphonso Davies on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (2.3 vs 3.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.34
+1.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)

  • 2
    FC Bayern München: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Luis Díaz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

21%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

94%

Under 1.5

6%

Over 2.5

81%

Under 2.5

19%

Over 3.5

63%

Under 3.5

37%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

79%

No

21%

Key Factors
  • Tactical attacking power: Elversberg averaged 8.0 shots on target recently, compared to Bayern's average of 8.4 per match
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates an 81% probability for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score
  • Efficiency trend: Bayern is currently scoring more frequently (4.0 goals) than their season average of 3.5
Risk Factors
  • Severe Bayern squad impact: Six key players including Luis Díaz and Joshua Kimmich are missing, leaving only 84% starting strength
  • Fatigue factor: FC Bayern München has only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Defensive vulnerability: Elversberg concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game
Overview

Elversberg host FC Bayern München at the URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Bundesliga match on September 13, 2026, 5:30 PM

Surprising table neighborhood duel: Elversberg sit in 4th place with 6 points, Bayern right behind in 5th with 4 points

Both teams remain unbeaten this season

Form

Elversberg started perfectly with 2 wins from 2 games

Overall form: WW

Most recently, they won a high-scoring match 4-3 against Mönchengladbach

FC Bayern is unbeaten in 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw

Overall form: WWWDW

In their last game, they celebrated a clear 5-0 win against Bodø / Glimt

Statistics

Elversberg score an average of 3.5 goals per game while conceding 2.5

Bayern average a historically strong 3.59 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game

Elversberg's games saw over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in both matchdays

Bayern achieved 12 clean sheets in the previous season

Key Players

Lukas Petkov has 1 goal, 1 assist and a venue rating of 7.78

Cole Campbell has scored 1 home goal with a rating of 7.16

David Mokwa also scored once at home with a rating of 7.17

Harry Kane dominates with 36 season goals and an average rating of 7.87

Michael Olise shines with 15 goals, 19 assists and a rating of 7.81

Tom Bischof shows rising form with 3 goals and a rating of 7.15

Goalkeepers

Nicolas Kristof is in goal for Elversberg and is still waiting for his first clean sheet of the season

Jonas Urbig guards the goal for Munich, having not played in the previous season

FC Bayern kept 12 clean sheets in the past season

Influences

The match is played on grass at the URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Elversberg scored 3 goals and conceded 2 in their only home game so far

The venue statistics show a high-scoring average of 5.0 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.