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Elversberg – FC Bayern München1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Elversberg
2.22
Total xG
4.33
FC Bayern München
2.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Elversberg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.34 | +1.34 |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.73 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.68 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Luis Díaz on the bench (15 goals, 14 assists) | ||
| Konrad Laimer on the bench (3 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Joshua Kimmich on the bench (2 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Jamal Musiala on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Tah on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alphonso Davies on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (2.3 vs 3.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical attacking power: Elversberg averaged 8.0 shots on target recently, compared to Bayern's average of 8.4 per match
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates an 81% probability for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score
- Efficiency trend: Bayern is currently scoring more frequently (4.0 goals) than their season average of 3.5
Risks
- Severe Bayern squad impact: Six key players including Luis Díaz and Joshua Kimmich are missing, leaving only 84% starting strength
- Fatigue factor: FC Bayern München has only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Defensive vulnerability: Elversberg concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Elversberg41%
Draw21%
FC Bayern München37%
Double chance
Elversberg or draw63%
FC Bayern München or draw59%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.581%
Under 2.519%
Over 3.563%
Under 3.537%
Both teams score
Yes79%
No21%
Most likely scores
2:2
7%
2:1
7%
1:2
7%
3:2
5%
2:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Bayern München: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)
- FC Bayern München: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Luis Díaz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Elversberg 4-2-3-1 · FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1
Elversberg
- 20 N. Kristof
- 30 J. Gyamerah
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 40 F. Onyeka
- 39 W. Campbell
- 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
FC Bayern München
- 40 J. Urbig
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 3 M. Kim
- 11 N. Brown
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 8 T. Bischof
- 42 L. Karl
- 17 M. Olise
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 9 H. Kane
Substitutes
- 10 N. Darvich
- 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
- 3 F. Le Joncour
- 6 A. Condé
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 9 N. Futkeu
- 24 L. Schnellbacher
- 26 L. Sirch
- 28 T. Boss
- 10 J. Musiala
- 14 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 21 H. Ito
- 27 K. Laimer
- 1 M. Neuer
- 19 A. Davies
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 7 S. Gnabry
- 4 J. Tah
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