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Bundesliga

FC Köln - Werder Bremen

09/12/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Köln
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Werder Bremen
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FKWB

FC Köln

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Said El Mala on the bench (13 goals, 5 assists)
Jakub Kamiński not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)
Ísak Jóhannesson on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Kristoffer Lund not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
68% of goal output missing (only 38% available)

Werder Bremen

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.77
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Jens Stage not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
Romano Schmid not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
Justin Njinmah not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Cameron Puertas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
69% of goal output missing (only 27% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.42
+1.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Köln: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    FC Köln: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    FC Köln: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 20 total)

  • 4
    Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 5
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 11 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Severe personnel shortage for Köln: Only 39% of goal-threat is available as key players like Said El Mala and Jakub Kamiński are missing
  • Massive blow for Bremen: Only 28% of usual offensive threat is ready without the unselected Jens Stage and Romano Schmid
  • Statistical advantage for Köln: The calculation model predicts a home win probability of 54%
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability for Köln: The home team recently conceded an average of 3.2 goals per match
  • Offensive slump for Bremen: The away team's goal production has recently stalled at an average of 1.0 goal per match
Overview

FC Köln host Werder Bremen at the RheinEnergieStadion

Bundesliga match on September 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

Both teams sit in mid-table with 3 points each

Form

FC Köln enter with form DLLWL and a recent 1-4 loss against VfB Stuttgart

Werder Bremen arrive with form LLLLW, but recently won 3-1 against RB Leipzig

Köln recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Bremen registered 1 win and 4 losses in their past 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Köln scored 49 goals in the season (Avg. 1.44 per game) and conceded 63 (Avg. 1.85)

Werder Bremen scored 37 goals (Avg. 1.09) and conceded 60 (Avg. 1.76)

Both teams scored in 27 of Köln's matches and 16 of Bremen's matches

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 22 home team matches and 18 away team matches

Head-to-Head

A total of 2 head-to-head matches in the data

FC Köln have 1 win, while Werder Bremen are yet to secure a victory

There was also 1 draw between the two teams

The last meeting ended 3-1 for Köln on April 12, 2026

Key Players

Marius Bülter scored 5 goals and provided 4 assists (average rating 6.88)

Alessio Castro-Montes contributed 1 goal and 3 assists (rating 6.89)

Linton Maina scored 2 goals this season (rating 6.68)

For Bremen, Marco Grüll has 3 goals and 1 assist (rating 6.81)

Olivier Deman registered 1 goal and 2 assists (rating 6.96)

Marco Friedl scored 1 goal this season (rating 6.83)

Goalkeepers

Marvin Schwäbe is in goal for FC Köln, playing 34 season matches

He has 1 home clean sheet (3 clean sheets overall)

Karl Hein guards the net for Werder Bremen, playing in 2 matches

He has yet to keep a clean sheet this season

Influences

The RheinEnergieStadion offers excellent conditions with its natural grass surface

In the last 5 home matches, an average of 4.4 goals were scored per game

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in all 5 of those matches

Köln scored 30 goals at home (Avg. 1.43) and conceded 30 goals (Avg. 1.43)

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