Match report →
FC Köln – Werder Bremen1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Köln
1.77
Total xG
2.75
Werder Bremen
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Köln | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.42 | +1.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.77 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Said El Mala on the bench (13 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Jakub Kamiński not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ísak Jóhannesson on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kristoffer Lund not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 68% of goal output missing (only 38% available) | ||
| Jens Stage not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Romano Schmid not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Justin Njinmah not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Cameron Puertas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 69% of goal output missing (only 27% available) |
Key factors
- Severe personnel shortage for Köln: Only 39% of goal-threat is available as key players like Said El Mala and Jakub Kamiński are missing
- Massive blow for Bremen: Only 28% of usual offensive threat is ready without the unselected Jens Stage and Romano Schmid
- Statistical advantage for Köln: The calculation model predicts a home win probability of 54%
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability for Köln: The home team recently conceded an average of 3.2 goals per match
- Offensive slump for Bremen: The away team's goal production has recently stalled at an average of 1.0 goal per match
All probabilities
Result
FC Köln54%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen19%
Double chance
FC Köln or draw81%
Werder Bremen or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Köln: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- FC Köln: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 20 total)
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 11 total)
Lineups
FC Köln 4-2-3-1 · Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 14 G. Mensah
- 6 E. Skhiri
- 5 T. Krauß
- 37 L. Maina
- 47 M. Moore
- 30 M. Bülter
- 27 T. Dallinga
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 13 A. de Matos Soares
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 15 L. Reis
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 20 I. San José Cantalejo
- 17 M. Grüll
- 10 N. Füllkrug
Substitutes
- 2 J. Schmied
- 28 S. Sebulonsen
- 20 R. Zieler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 10 S. El Mala
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 9 R. Ache
- 3 B. Sosa
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 29 S. Musah
- 4 N. Stark
- 8 M. Weiser
- 30 A. Schlager
- 26 C. Itten
- 3 O. Wójcik
- 23 D. Stalmach
- 38 P. Erevbenagie
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