🇩🇪

Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach

09/12/2026, 01:30 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SFBM

SC Freiburg

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-1.07
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
-0.86
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.19
Full strength squad available

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.82
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.31
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.10
Yannik Engelhardt not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Wael Mohya on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.45
+1.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    SC Freiburg: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    SC Freiburg: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (9 of 25)

  • 4
    Borussia Mönchengladbach: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

29%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Form and standings gap: Second-placed Freiburg secured four consecutive wins recently, while Gladbach in 17th place struggle with two consecutive defeats
  • Head-to-head dominance: Freiburg clearly dominate recent meetings with 3 wins from the last 4 encounters
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Freiburg concede just 1.0 goals per game at home, whereas Gladbach concede an average of 1.93 goals in away matches
Risk Factors
  • Gladbach's defensive weakness on the road with an average of 1.93 goals conceded per away match
  • The absence of J. Castrop due to a shoulder injury weakens Gladbach's midfield
Overview

SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach

Bundesliga match on September 12, 2026, 3:30 PM

Second-placed Freiburg face Gladbach in 17th position

Freiburg aim to maintain their perfect start while Gladbach seek their first points

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 47%

The model calculates 1.52 expected goals for Freiburg and 1.04 for Gladbach

Form

Freiburg show form LWWWW

Four wins and one loss in the last five matches

Mönchengladbach display form WLWLL

The visitors recorded two wins and three losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Freiburg score an average of 1.5 goals per match

At home Freiburg concede only 1.0 goals per game

Gladbach concede an average of 1.93 goals in away matches

SC Freiburg averaged 6.6 shots on target with 55% possession in recent matches

Mönchengladbach averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches

Head-to-Head

Freiburg dominate recent encounters with 3 wins in 4 matches

Mönchengladbach have not won any of these recent meetings

The last duel ended in a 2-1 victory for SC Freiburg

Goal difference of 7-3 in favor of Freiburg

Key Players

Yuito Suzuki with 3 goals in his last 3 matches and a rising trend

Igor Matanovic with a strong rating of 7.40 in recent games

Maximilian Eggestein with 1 goal and 1 assist recently

Hugo Bolin has scored 4 goals in his last 5 appearances

Franck Honorat registered 3 assists in recent matches

Moritz Nicolas shows a rising form trend in goal

Goalkeepers

Mio Backhaus starts in goal for Freiburg

Moritz Nicolas impresses with a season rating of 7.14

Gladbach secured 13 clean sheets this season

Freiburg kept 6 clean sheets overall

Influences

Home advantage at the Europa-Park Stadion on grass

Freiburg's home venue has a 100% both teams to score rate

An average of 4.2 total goals scored in recent matches at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.