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SC Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
SC Freiburg
1.52
Total xG
2.57
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.45 | +1.45 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.86 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.82 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Yannik Engelhardt not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Wael Mohya on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form and standings gap: Second-placed Freiburg secured four consecutive wins recently, while Gladbach in 17th place struggle with two consecutive defeats
- Head-to-head dominance: Freiburg clearly dominate recent meetings with 3 wins from the last 4 encounters
- Home strength vs away weakness: Freiburg concede just 1.0 goals per game at home, whereas Gladbach concede an average of 1.93 goals in away matches
Risks
- Gladbach's defensive weakness on the road with an average of 1.93 goals conceded per away match
- The absence of J. Castrop due to a shoulder injury weakens Gladbach's midfield
All probabilities
Result
SC Freiburg47%
Draw29%
Borussia Mönchengladbach24%
Double chance
SC Freiburg or draw76%
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw53%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- SC Freiburg: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (9 of 25)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
Lineups
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-4-2
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 29 P. Treu
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 31 I. Matanovic
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 M. Nicolas
- 29 J. Scally
- 6 K. Itakura
- 4 K. Diks
- 20 D. Herold
- 9 F. Honorat
- 16 P. Sander
- 7 K. Stöger
- 25 R. Hack
- 38 H. Bolin
- 11 T. Kleindienst
Substitutes
- 17 L. Kübler
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 30 C. Günter
- 9 L. Höler
- 21 F. Müller
- 32 V. Grifo
- 22 C. Irié
- 42 K. Goto
- 27 B. Yilmaz
- 36 W. Mohya
- 18 S. Machino
- 2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 10 F. Neuhaus
- 33 D. Batz
- 5 J. Leszczyński
- 3 I. Lidberg
- 34 M. Nguefack
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