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Bundesliga

Bayer 04 Leverkusen - RB Leipzig

09/20/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.0
Total xG
3.3
RB Leipzig
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

1:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
B0LRL

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.4 league avg)
-1.04
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Malik Tillman on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

RB Leipzig

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Nicolas Seiwald on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.47
+1.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    RB Leipzig: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    RB Leipzig: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    RB Leipzig: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (9 of 27)

  • 5
    RB Leipzig: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)

  • 6
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

24%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Leverkusen's home scoring average of 2.0 goals meets Leipzig's weak away defense conceding 2.08 goals per game
  • Tactical dominance: Leverkusen controlled their last matches with 62% average possession and 7.2 shots on target, compared to Leipzig's 6.4 shots on target
  • Performance of top players: Striker Patrik Schick is in excellent form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact: The absence of Malik Tillman leaves Leverkusen with only 88% of their usual starting lineup strength
  • Defensive away weakness: Leipzig concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away match this season
Overview

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (10th place, 4 points) hosts RB Leipzig (7th place, 6 points) at the BayArena

Bundesliga match on September 20, 2026, 3:30 PM

Mid-table duel with both teams aiming for the top spots

Form

Leverkusen has a form of DLWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with a win in their last match

RB Leipzig has a form of LWLLW with a win in their last match

Leverkusen got 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games

Leipzig registered 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Statistics

Leverkusen scores 2.0 goals on average and concedes 1.38 goals per game this season

Leipzig averages 1.94 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 51% and expects 1.96 goals for the hosts

Leipzig concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game while scoring 2.0 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in total

Bayer 04 Leverkusen leads with 2 wins compared to 1 win for RB Leipzig and 1 draw

The last match ended in a clear 4:1 home win for Leverkusen on May 2, 2026

Key Players

Patrik Schick is on a rising form trend with 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Aleix GarcĂ­a has an rising form trend with 8 assists this season

Antonio Nusa shows a rising form trend with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Mark Flekken in goal for Leverkusen has a stable form and 6 clean sheets at home this season

Maarten Vandevoordt has a stable form trend for Leipzig

Influences

The BayArena averaged 3.2 total goals per game over the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of these games

Home advantage for Leverkusen is supported by their home average of 2.0 goals scored against Leipzig's 2.08 goals conceded away

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