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Bayer 04 Leverkusen – RB Leipzig2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.96
Total xG
3.28
RB Leipzig
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.47 | +1.47 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −1.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Malik Tillman on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Nicolas Seiwald on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Leverkusen's home scoring average of 2.0 goals meets Leipzig's weak away defense conceding 2.08 goals per game
- Tactical dominance: Leverkusen controlled their last matches with 62% average possession and 7.2 shots on target, compared to Leipzig's 6.4 shots on target
- Performance of top players: Striker Patrik Schick is in excellent form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches
Risks
- Squad impact: The absence of Malik Tillman leaves Leverkusen with only 88% of their usual starting lineup strength
- Defensive away weakness: Leipzig concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen51%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig24%
Double chance
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw76%
RB Leipzig or draw49%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- RB Leipzig: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- RB Leipzig: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- RB Leipzig: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (9 of 27)
- RB Leipzig: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1 · RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1 M. Flekken
- 4 J. Quansah
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 2 F. Medina
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 6 I. Fernández Carballo
- 24 A. García Serrano
- 19 M. Diaby
- 30 I. Maza
- 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
- 14 P. Schick
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 3 M. Esteve
- 22 D. Raum
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 10 B. Gruda
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
Substitutes
- 22 V. Boniface
- 35 C. Kofane
- 28 J. Blaswich
- 17 L. Vázquez Iglesias
- 10 M. Tillman
- 8 R. Andrich
- 7 J. Hofmann
- 11 M. Terrier
- 5 L. Badé
- 45 S. Konate
- 27 T. Gomis
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 16 L. Klostermann
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 2 A. Koné
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