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Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt - SC Freiburg

09/19/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.5
Total xG
2.7
SC Freiburg
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
EFSF

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-1.46
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.12
Full strength squad available

SC Freiburg

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.47
Rising form (3.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.47
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.28
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.47
+1.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Eintracht Frankfurt: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    SC Freiburg: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 4
    Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)

  • 5
    SC Freiburg: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (10 of 28)

  • 6
    Jonathan Burkardt: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Exceptional away form: Freiburg enter with 5 consecutive wins (form WWWWW) and averaged 3.4 goals recently
  • Tactical dominance: Freiburg averaged 57% possession and a high of 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical advantage: Eintracht Frankfurt won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches with an 11-4 goal ratio
Risk Factors
  • Freiburg's weak away defense: The visitors concede a high average of 2.92 goals per away game
  • Eintracht's defensive issues: Frankfurt concede an average of 1.91 goals per match this season
Overview

Eintracht Frankfurt (9th place, 4 points) host SC Freiburg (2nd place, 9 points) at Deutsche Bank Park

Bundesliga match on September 19, 2026, 3:30 PM

Freiburg travel as direct challengers for the top spot

Form

Eintracht Frankfurt show a form of LDDLW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last match was a 3-1 away win against FSV Mainz 05

SC Freiburg show a perfect form of WWWWW with 5 consecutive wins

Their last match was a dominant 5-0 home win against Borussia Mönchengladbach

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Eintracht Frankfurt average 1.79 goals scored and 1.91 goals conceded per match

SC Freiburg score 1.5 goals on average and concede 2.92 goals per away game

The mathematical prediction sets the probability for over 1.5 goals at 77%

Head-to-Head

Eintracht Frankfurt dominate the head-to-head history with 3 wins in 4 matches

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 home win for Frankfurt on March 1, 2026

The overall goal ratio stands at 11-4 in favor of Frankfurt

Key Players

Jonathan Burkardt is Frankfurt's top threat with 13 goals and an average rating of 7.06

Igor Matanovic has registered 11 goals and 2 assists for SC Freiburg

Matthias Ginter anchors Freiburg's defense with an average rating of 6.96 and 3 goals scored

Goalkeepers

Noah Atubolu is the goalkeeper for Eintracht Frankfurt and has contributed to 7 clean sheets

Mio Backhaus features in goal for SC Freiburg who have registered 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Matches at Deutsche Bank Park averaged 4.0 goals per game recently

All of Frankfurt's last 5 home games ended with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals

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