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Eintracht Frankfurt – SC Freiburg2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.45
Total xG
2.69
SC Freiburg
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.47 | +1.47 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −1.46 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.47 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.47 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Exceptional away form: Freiburg enter with 5 consecutive wins (form WWWWW) and averaged 3.4 goals recently
- Tactical dominance: Freiburg averaged 57% possession and a high of 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical advantage: Eintracht Frankfurt won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches with an 11-4 goal ratio
Risks
- Freiburg's weak away defense: The visitors concede a high average of 2.92 goals per away game
- Eintracht's defensive issues: Frankfurt concede an average of 1.91 goals per match this season
All probabilities
Result
Eintracht Frankfurt40%
Draw29%
SC Freiburg31%
Double chance
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw69%
SC Freiburg or draw60%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- SC Freiburg: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (10 of 28)
- Jonathan Burkardt: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2 · SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 2 E. Baum
- 4 R. Koch
- 3 L. Brassier
- 26 K. Kosugi
- 20 R. Doan
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 42 C. Uzun
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
- 9 J. Burkardt
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 29 P. Treu
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 31 I. Matanovic
Substitutes
- 34 N. Collins
- 6 O. Højlund
- 29 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 27 M. Götze
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 22 T. Chandler
- 7 A. Knauff
- 35 M. Razak Engholm Pimpong
- 5 O. Galdino Fernandes
- 17 L. Kübler
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 30 C. Günter
- 9 L. Höler
- 21 F. Müller
- 32 V. Grifo
- 22 C. Irié
- 42 K. Goto
- 27 B. Yilmaz
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