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VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
VfB Stuttgart
1.68
Total xG
2.76
Borussia Dortmund
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.56 | +1.56 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.5 league avg) | −1.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Ramon Hendriks on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jobe Bellingham on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 50% for Stuttgart
- Outstanding away trend: Dortmund travel with 5 consecutive wins and score more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.2)
- Tactical activity: Dortmund averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Stuttgart's 5.4
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Stuttgart recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.49
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
VfB Stuttgart50%
Draw27%
Borussia Dortmund23%
Double chance
VfB Stuttgart or draw77%
Borussia Dortmund or draw50%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Dortmund: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Villarreal: 3 goals (80', 85', 90+3')
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Borussia Dortmund: 11 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- VfB Stuttgart: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1 · Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
VfB Stuttgart
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 24 J. Chabot
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
- 21 G. Prömel
- 6 A. Stiller
- 10 C. Führich
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 26 D. Undav
- 9 E. Demirović
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 25 J. Veerman
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 24 D. Svensson
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 14 M. Beier
- 9 S. Guirassy
Substitutes
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 16 A. Karazor
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 18 J. Leweling
- 28 N. Nartey
- 44 L. Sauer
- 47 Y. Spalt
- 33 M. Funk
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 33 A. Meyer
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 5 R. Bensebaini
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 40 S. Inacio
- 49 L. Reggiani
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