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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund

09/19/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
VfB Stuttgart
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Borussia Dortmund
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
VSBD

VfB Stuttgart

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.5 league avg)
-1.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.05
Ramon Hendriks on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

Borussia Dortmund

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.30
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.6 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.14
Jobe Bellingham on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match)
+1.56
+1.56
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Borussia Dortmund: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Villarreal: 3 goals (80', 85', 90+3')

  • 2
    Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)

  • 3
    Borussia Dortmund: 11 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    VfB Stuttgart: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

27%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 50% for Stuttgart
  • Outstanding away trend: Dortmund travel with 5 consecutive wins and score more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.2)
  • Tactical activity: Dortmund averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Stuttgart's 5.4
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Stuttgart recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.49
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

VfB Stuttgart (14th place, 3 points) host Borussia Dortmund (3rd place, 9 points)

Bundesliga match at MHPArena on September 19, 2026, 6:30 PM

Dortmund travel with a perfect record of three wins

Stuttgart aim to correct their slow start

Form

VfB Stuttgart show the form DLWWL

Most recently they suffered a 1-2 defeat against TSG Hoffenheim

Borussia Dortmund are in outstanding shape with the form WWWWW

Five wins in the last five competitive matches underline their strong form

Statistics

VfB Stuttgart scored an average of 2.09 goals per game last season

Their defense conceded an average of 1.44 goals

Dortmund scored an average of 2.06 goals per match

The visitors conceded an average of only 1.00 goal per game

Head-to-Head

A total of 4 head-to-head matches took place in recent years

Stuttgart celebrated 2 wins, Dortmund secured 1 win, with 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 10-7 in favor of VfB Stuttgart

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for Dortmund

Key Players

Deniz Undav impresses with 19 season goals and 7 assists

Ermedin Demirovic scored 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Chris Führich contributed 7 goals and 7 assists this season

Serhou Guirassy is in top form with 17 goals, including 5 in his last 5 games

Nico Schlotterbeck boasts a strong average season rating of 7.32

Felix Nmecha recently scored 2 goals in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Fabian Bredlow started in goal for Stuttgart in 4 of the last 5 matches, averaging a 6.94 rating

On the other side, Gregor Kobel recorded an impressive 15 clean sheets in 34 season games

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at MHPArena

The MHPArena is known for high-scoring games, averaging 3.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the games played at this venue

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