Match report →
Schalke 04 – Elversberg0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Schalke 04
1.84
Total xG
2.98
Elversberg
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Schalke 04 | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.50 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.47 | +1.47 |
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −1.15 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.54 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home advantage for Schalke: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 52%
- Tactical focus: Both teams play a counter-oriented style with Schalke averaging 34% and Elversberg 37% possession
- Offensive threat: Elversberg averages 2.67 goals scored per game
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Elversberg concedes an average of 2.33 goals per match
- Limited data availability on player statistics
- First home game for Schalke: No home record established yet this season
All probabilities
Result
Schalke 0452%
Draw26%
Elversberg22%
Double chance
Schalke 04 or draw78%
Elversberg or draw48%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
0:0
Final score
Lineups
Schalke 04 3-4-2-1 · Elversberg 4-2-3-1
Schalke 04
- 1 L. Karius
- 5 T. Becker
- 25 N. Katić
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 29 E. Dina Ebimbe
- 23 S. El-Faouzi
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 8 R. Gosens
- 19 K. Karaman
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 10 E. Džeko
Elversberg
- 20 N. Kristof
- 30 J. Gyamerah
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 10 N. Darvich
- 39 W. Campbell
- 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
Substitutes
- 39 M. Wöber
- 22 K. Müller
- 20 J. Chikwubuike Adamu
- 7 H. Hwang
- 9 M. Sylla
- 6 R. Schallenberg
- 33 V. Becker
- 43 M. Ayhan
- 38 L. Vozar
- 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
- 3 F. Le Joncour
- 6 A. Condé
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 9 N. Futkeu
- 24 L. Schnellbacher
- 26 L. Sirch
- 28 T. Boss
- 40 F. Onyeka
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