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Werder Bremen – FC Augsburg3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Werder Bremen
1.16
Total xG
2.48
FC Augsburg
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −1.75 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.47 | +1.47 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Justin Njinmah not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 62% of goal output missing (only 36% available) | ||
| Anton Kade not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Heavy squad impact for Werder Bremen: Without Justin Njinmah only 36% of the usual starting goal threat is available
- FC Augsburg is in strong form and averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical dominance for FC Augsburg with two wins in the last four meetings and no Bremen wins
Risks
- Vulnerable away defense for FC Augsburg with an average of 2.2 goals conceded per away game
- Werder Bremen's stalling goal production with only 1.0 goals recently compared to the 1.2 season average
- High number of injuries for Bremen with five players on the sidelined list
All probabilities
Result
Werder Bremen31%
Draw30%
FC Augsburg38%
Double chance
Werder Bremen or draw62%
FC Augsburg or draw69%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:2
8%
1:0
8%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Augsburg with Michael Gregoritsch starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/9 games, last 30)
- Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)
- FC Augsburg: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Werder Bremen 3-4-3 · FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 13 A. de Matos Soares
- 15 L. Reis
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 17 M. Grüll
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 10 N. Füllkrug
- 20 I. San José Cantalejo
FC Augsburg
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 40 N. Banks
- 5 C. Matsima
- 2 C. Brackelmann
- 27 M. Wolf
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 16 H. Behrens
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 10 M. Kömür
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
Substitutes
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 29 S. Musah
- 4 N. Stark
- 8 M. Weiser
- 30 A. Schlager
- 26 C. Itten
- 3 O. Wójcik
- 23 D. Stalmach
- 38 P. Erevbenagie
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 20 A. Claude Maurice
- 22 N. Labrović
- 21 A.Ibrahimovic
- 35 A. Juma Bah
- 9 R. Duarte Ribeiro
- 7 Seol Young-Woo
- 39 U. Ogundu
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