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Bundesliga

Werder Bremen - FC Augsburg

09/19/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Werder Bremen
1.2
Total xG
2.5
FC Augsburg
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:2

8%

1:0

8%
What influences the xG?
WBFA

Werder Bremen

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-1.75
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Justin Njinmah not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 36% available)

FC Augsburg

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.35
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.27
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Anton Kade not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.47
+1.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Augsburg with Michael Gregoritsch starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/9 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)

  • 3
    FC Augsburg: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Heavy squad impact for Werder Bremen: Without Justin Njinmah only 36% of the usual starting goal threat is available
  • FC Augsburg is in strong form and averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical dominance for FC Augsburg with two wins in the last four meetings and no Bremen wins
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable away defense for FC Augsburg with an average of 2.2 goals conceded per away game
  • Werder Bremen's stalling goal production with only 1.0 goals recently compared to the 1.2 season average
  • High number of injuries for Bremen with five players on the sidelined list
Overview

Werder Bremen hosts FC Augsburg at the Wohninvest Weserstadion

Bundesliga match on September 19, 2026, 3:30 PM

The visitors arrive in fourth place in the standings

Bremen currently sits in tenth place

Form

Werder Bremen shows a form of LLLWD

FC Augsburg travels with a strong form of WLWWD

Bremen recently drew against Köln

Augsburg secured a draw against Leverkusen

Statistics

Bremen scores an average of 1.09 goals and concedes 1.76

FC Augsburg averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.79 conceded

In Bremen's home games, they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.82 conceded

Augsburg concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

Bremen has not won a match, with 2 draws recorded

FC Augsburg celebrated 2 wins

The last encounter ended in a 1-3 away victory for Augsburg

Key Players

Marco Grüll with 3 goals and 1 assist in rising form

Olivier Deman records 1 goal and 2 assists with an upward trend

Marco Friedl with stable performances in defense

Fabian Rieder delivers 6 goals and 3 assists in rising form

Michael Gregoritsch shows great form with 6 goals and 2 assists

Mert Kömür stabilizes the midfield with 2 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Karl Hein in goal for Bremen with an average rating of 7.6

Finn Dahmen for FC Augsburg with an average rating of 6.77

Bremen recorded 6 clean sheets, while Augsburg has 5

Influences

In the Wohninvest Weserstadion, matches average 3.4 total goals

Both teams scored in 80% of these home games

The match will be played on natural grass

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