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Bundesliga

FC Bayern München - FC Union Berlin

09/18/2026, 06:30 PM

7 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Bayern München
2.6
Total xG
3.4
FC Union Berlin
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

3:0

9%

2:1

9%

1:1

8%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
FBMFUB

FC Bayern München

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 2.4 league avg)
-1.23
Rising form (4.2 vs 3.5 season average)
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Konrad Laimer on the bench (3 goals, 9 assists)
Lennart Karl on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists)

FC Union Berlin

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.80
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.25
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.09
Aljoscha Kemlein on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Livan Burcu on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Josip Juranovic not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.35
+1.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Union Berlin: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against FSV Mainz 05: 2 goals (88', 90+1')

  • 2
    FC Union Berlin: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    FC Union Berlin: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)

  • 4
    FC Bayern München: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)

  • 5
    FC Bayern München: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 6
    FC Union Berlin: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

17%

Away Win

9%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

91%

Away or Draw

26%

No Draw

83%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 74% probability and expects 2.58 goals for Munich
  • FC Bayern recently averaged 70% possession and an impressive 7.8 shots on target per match
  • Berlin travels weakened with Aljoscha Kemlein, Livan Burcu, and Josip Juranovic missing, leaving only 74% of their typical starting strength
Risk Factors
  • Union Berlin's away defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.29 goals per away match
  • The Berliners head into this fixture in a form crisis after suffering two consecutive defeats
Overview

FC Bayern München (4th place, 7 points) host FC Union Berlin (16th place, 1 point) at the Allianz Arena

Bundesliga match on September 18, 2026, 8:30 PM

The hosts enter this fixture as clear favorites

Form

FC Bayern München in strong form (WWDWW - W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recently won 2-1 against Elversberg

FC Union Berlin struggling with two consecutive defeats (WWDLL)

Recently suffered a 1-3 loss against Schalke 04

Statistics

Munich boasting a powerful attack with 122 goals in 34 season matches (average 3.59)

Their defense conceded an average of 1.06 goals per game

Union Berlin scored 44 goals in 34 season matches (average 1.29)

On the road, the Berliners conceded an average of 2.29 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Head-to-head record from the last 5 matches favors Munich

3 wins for FC Bayern and 2 draws

Goal difference of 13-5 in favor of the home team

The last direct encounter ended in a clear 4-0 home win for FC Bayern

Key Players

Harry Kane (36 goals, 5 assists), Michael Olise (15 goals, 19 assists), and Luis Díaz (15 goals, 14 assists) form a highly dangerous attack

Rani Khedira (5 goals), Woo-yeong Jeong (4 goals), and András Schäfer (2 goals) anchor the midfield response

Goalkeepers

Manuel Neuer played 22 games in goal for FC Bayern this season

Frederik Rønnow guarded the Berlin goal in 30 matches this season

Both keepers share a similar average rating (Neuer: 6.63 vs Rønnow: 6.67)

Influences

Matches at the Allianz Arena average 5.0 goals per game

FC Bayern scores an average of 3.58 goals per home match

The grass surface provides optimal conditions for fast passing play

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