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FC Bayern München – FC Union Berlin7 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Bayern München
2.58
Total xG
3.42
FC Union Berlin
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Bayern München | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.35 | +1.35 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −1.23 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.80 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (4.2 vs 3.5 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Konrad Laimer on the bench (3 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Lennart Karl on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Aljoscha Kemlein on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Livan Burcu on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Josip Juranovic not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 74% probability and expects 2.58 goals for Munich
- FC Bayern recently averaged 70% possession and an impressive 7.8 shots on target per match
- Berlin travels weakened with Aljoscha Kemlein, Livan Burcu, and Josip Juranovic missing, leaving only 74% of their typical starting strength
Risks
- Union Berlin's away defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.29 goals per away match
- The Berliners head into this fixture in a form crisis after suffering two consecutive defeats
All probabilities
Result
FC Bayern München74%
Draw17%
FC Union Berlin9%
Double chance
FC Bayern München or draw91%
FC Union Berlin or draw26%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
3:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
8%
7:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Union Berlin: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against FSV Mainz 05: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- FC Union Berlin: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- FC Bayern München: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)
- FC Bayern München: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · FC Union Berlin 4-2-3-1
FC Bayern München
- 1 M. Neuer
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 4 J. Tah
- 19 A. Davies
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 17 M. Olise
- 10 J. Musiala
- 14 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 9 H. Kane
FC Union Berlin
- 1 F. Rønnow
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 2 F. Uduokhai
- 15 T. Rothe
- 8 R. Khedira
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 19 J. Haberer
- 11 W. Jeong
- 13 A. Schafer
- 29 E. Latte Lath
Substitutes
- 11 N. Brown
- 3 M. Kim
- 42 L. Karl
- 8 T. Bischof
- 21 H. Ito
- 40 J. Urbig
- 7 S. Gnabry
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 39 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
- 30 K. Imeri
- 24 R. Skov
- 31 M. Raab
- 9 L. Burcu
- 17 D. Köhn
- 21 T. Skarke
- 6 A. Kemlein
- 27 M. Ljubičić
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
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