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Hamburger SV – FC Köln2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Hamburger SV
1.27
Total xG
2.64
FC Köln
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hamburger SV | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.42x league average) | −1.72 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.47 | +1.47 |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Marius Bülter on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ísak Jóhannesson on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attacking efficiency: Köln score consistently with 1.46 goals per game, while Hamburg's attack has stalled recently at 0.8 goals
- Tactical advantage: Köln averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Hamburg's 3.8
- Model tendency: The prediction model sees a slight edge for the visitors with an away win probability of 38%
Risks
- Away defense weakness: Köln conceded a high average of 2.54 goals per away game this season
- Hamburg's low form: The hosts lost three consecutive matches with a goal difference of 0-12
- Offensive deficits: Hamburg averaged only 3.8 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Hamburger SV33%
Draw29%
FC Köln38%
Double chance
Hamburger SV or draw62%
FC Köln or draw67%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Köln: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Köln: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
- Hamburger SV: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- FC Köln: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 20 total)
- Hamburger SV: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1 · FC Köln 4-2-3-1
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 24 N. Capaldo
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 17 W. Omari
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 21 N. Remberg
- 3 D. Wolfe
- 20 F. Ferreira Vieira
- 11 A. Erlykke
- 9 T. Moffi
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 14 G. Mensah
- 5 T. Krauß
- 6 E. Skhiri
- 37 L. Maina
- 47 M. Moore
- 10 S. El Mala
- 27 T. Dallinga
Substitutes
- 15 Y. Yurary Poulsen
- 18 B. Jatta
- 4 B. Nadir
- 27 P. Daka
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 37 L. Lemke
- 43 S. Nandja
- 5 M. Adeline
- 7 G. Waldschmidt
- 2 J. Schmied
- 30 M. Bülter
- 28 S. Sebulonsen
- 20 R. Zieler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 9 R. Ache
- 3 B. Sosa
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