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Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - FC Köln

09/19/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Hamburger SV
1.3
Total xG
2.6
FC Köln
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
HSFK

Hamburger SV

Attack weakness (0.42x league average)
-1.72
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Full strength squad available

FC Köln

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Marius Bülter on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Ísak Jóhannesson on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.47
+1.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Köln: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    FC Köln: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    FC Köln: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)

  • 4
    Hamburger SV: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 5
    FC Köln: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 20 total)

  • 6
    Hamburger SV: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

29%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Attacking efficiency: Köln score consistently with 1.46 goals per game, while Hamburg's attack has stalled recently at 0.8 goals
  • Tactical advantage: Köln averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Hamburg's 3.8
  • Model tendency: The prediction model sees a slight edge for the visitors with an away win probability of 38%
Risk Factors
  • Away defense weakness: Köln conceded a high average of 2.54 goals per away game this season
  • Hamburg's low form: The hosts lost three consecutive matches with a goal difference of 0-12
  • Offensive deficits: Hamburg averaged only 3.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Hamburger SV host FC Köln at the Volksparkstadion

Bundesliga match on September 19, 2026, 3:30 PM

Matchup between the bottom-placed team and 12th-placed Köln

Hamburger SV are still without points after three matches

Köln aim to secure their spot in the midfield with a win

Form

Hamburger SV show a form of WDLLL in their recent matches

The hosts have lost three consecutive games lately

FC Köln arrive with a form of LLWLD

Köln drew their last match against Werder Bremen

Statistics

Hamburger SV scored an average of 1.18 goals per game this season and conceded 1.59

Hamburg's goalscoring has stalled recently with an average of 0.8 goals per match

FC Köln score consistently with an average of 1.46 goals while conceding 1.85 per game

Köln concede an average of 2.54 goals per match when playing away

Head-to-Head

Two recent head-to-head matches between the teams

FC Köln lead the record with one win and one draw

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on March 14, 2026

Köln scored five goals in these matches compared to Hamburg's two

Key Players

Fábio Vieira is a key performer in Hamburg's midfield with 7 goals and 5 assists in 29 games

Albert Sambi Lokonga contributed 5 goals in 26 appearances

Said El Mala is Köln's most dangerous attacker with 13 goals and 5 assists in 34 matches

Not nominated for Köln are Marius Bülter (5T/4A) and Ísak Jóhannesson (1T/2A)

Goalkeepers

Daniel Heuer Fernandes played 33 times in goal for Hamburger SV with a 6.87 average rating

Marvin Schwäbe completed 34 matches for FC Köln with a 6.83 rating

Both goalkeepers show a declining form trend recently

Influences

The Volksparkstadion features a natural grass surface providing familiar conditions

An average of 3.4 goals per match was scored in the last five home games

Both teams scored in 80% of these home matches

Köln's away weakness with 2.54 goals conceded per game could strengthen the home advantage

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