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Bundesliga

Paderborn - TSG Hoffenheim

09/20/2026, 05:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Paderborn
1.8
Total xG
3.2
TSG Hoffenheim
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PADTH

Paderborn

Attack weakness (0.3x league average)
-1.96
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+1.35
Full strength squad available

TSG Hoffenheim

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.17
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.17
Tim Lemperle on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists)
Albian Hajdari on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 46% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.41
+1.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    TSG Hoffenheim: 69% of all goals in the first half (11 of 16, last 11 games)

  • 3
    TSG Hoffenheim: 31% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

25%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 47% of Hoffenheim's starting strength available as Tim Lemperle and Albian Hajdari are missing
  • Tactical metrics: Hoffenheim averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Home win tendency: The mathematical model estimates a 46% probability for a Paderborn victory
Risk Factors
  • Attack concerns: Paderborn has failed to score a single goal this season
  • Defensive vulnerability: Hoffenheim concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away match
  • Restricted dataset regarding historic head-to-head meetings
Overview

Paderborn hosts TSG Hoffenheim at the Home Deluxe Arena

Bundesliga match on September 20, 2026, 5:30 PM

Paderborn sits in 16th place with one point

TSG Hoffenheim travels as the 13th-placed team with three points

Both sides are eager to climb out of the lower ranks

Form

Paderborn's recent form stands at one draw and two losses (DLL)

The hosts suffer from a consecutive run of two defeats

Hoffenheim recorded two wins and three losses (WLLLW)

The visitors secured a win against Stuttgart in their last match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Paderborn is yet to score their first goal of the Bundesliga season

The home side conceded an average of 1.33 goals per match

Hoffenheim averaged 1.91 goals scored per game over their season

The visitors conceded an average of 1.53 goals per match

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 24 of Hoffenheim's 34 matches

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches available in the provided dataset

Key Players

Adam Hlozek shows rising form with two goals in his last five appearances

Ozan Kabak remains stable in defense with a season rating of 6.95

Wouter Burger controls the midfield with a season rating of 7.12

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Oliver Baumann played 34 season games for Hoffenheim

Baumann holds a stable average season rating of 6.77

Nahuel Noll guards the home goal with a venue rating of 7.28

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Home Deluxe Arena

Paderborn conceded only one goal at home so far

Hoffenheim averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.94 conceded in away games

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