Match report →
Paderborn – TSG Hoffenheim3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Paderborn
1.83
Total xG
3.23
TSG Hoffenheim
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paderborn | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.3x league average) | −1.96 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.41 | +1.41 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +1.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| Tim Lemperle on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Albian Hajdari on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Only 47% of Hoffenheim's starting strength available as Tim Lemperle and Albian Hajdari are missing
- Tactical metrics: Hoffenheim averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Home win tendency: The mathematical model estimates a 46% probability for a Paderborn victory
Risks
- Attack concerns: Paderborn has failed to score a single goal this season
- Defensive vulnerability: Hoffenheim concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away match
- Restricted dataset regarding historic head-to-head meetings
All probabilities
Result
Paderborn46%
Draw25%
TSG Hoffenheim28%
Double chance
Paderborn or draw72%
TSG Hoffenheim or draw54%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 69% of all goals in the first half (11 of 16, last 11 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 31% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 16)
Lineups
Paderborn 3-5-2 · TSG Hoffenheim 4-4-2
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 17 L. Curda
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 40 G. Vidović
- 23 R. Obermair
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 30 S. Marino
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 5 O. Kabak
- 28 K. Machida
- 39 M. Rots
- 20 B. Conté
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 18 W. Burger
- 14 A. Daghim
- 10 A. Hložek
- 9 M. Moerstedt
Substitutes
- 38 D. Zeitler
- 9 R. Philippe
- 20 F. Götze
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 6 T. Baack
- 27 S. Tigges
- 11 S. Michel
- 2 R. Müller
- 8 P. Wimmer
- 21 A. Hajdari
- 15 V. Gendrey
- 2 R. Hranáč
- 11 F. Asllani
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 37 L. Philipp
- 19 T. Lemperle
- 17 N. De Cat
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