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FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Köln
1.91
Total xG
3.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Alessio Castro-Montes not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tom Krauß on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Franck Honorat not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Wael Mohya not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kevin Stöger not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 64% available) |
Key factors
- Squad Impact: Franck Honorat, Wael Mohya, and Kevin Stöger are not starting, leaving only 64% of active goal threat available
- Form gap: Gladbach have suffered 4 consecutive losses, conceding an average of 3.2 goals per game in recent matches
- Model prediction: FC Köln enter as favorites with a 52% win probability and 1.91 expected home goals
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability for Köln: FC Köln conceded an average of 2.8 goals in recent matches
- Gladbach's away record: Borussia Mönchengladbach concede an average of 1.93 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
FC Köln52%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach23%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
FC Köln or draw77%
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw48%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Köln: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- FC Köln: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 20 total)
- FC Köln: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
Lineups
FC Köln 4-3-1-2 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 28 S. Sebulonsen
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 3 B. Sosa
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 6 E. Skhiri
- 37 L. Maina
- 47 M. Moore
- 10 S. El Mala
- 30 M. Bülter
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 M. Nicolas
- 14 D. Hashioka
- 4 K. Diks
- 5 J. Leszczyński
- 29 J. Scally
- 16 P. Sander
- 10 F. Neuhaus
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 38 H. Bolin
- 25 R. Hack
- 3 I. Lidberg
Substitutes
- 7 G. Waldschmidt
- 2 J. Schmied
- 5 T. Krauß
- 20 R. Zieler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 14 G. Mensah
- 15 I. Rondić
- 11 R. Heskey
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 36 W. Mohya
- 18 S. Machino
- 2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 33 D. Batz
- 22 Y. Konoplia
- 27 F. Fleck
- 47 Z. Uno
- 20 D. Herold
- 34 M. Nguefack
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