Match report →
FC Union Berlin – Elversberg1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Union Berlin
1.79
Total xG
2.86
Elversberg
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Union Berlin | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.74 | |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Leopold Querfeld on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Aljoscha Kemlein on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Livan Burcu on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Josip Juranovic not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical model estimates a 53% home win probability with 1.79 expected goals for FC Union Berlin
- FC Union Berlin averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.5 for Elversberg
- Elversberg score consistently averaging 2.7 goals per match
Risks
- FC Union Berlin conceded an average of 3.4 goals per match in recent games
- FC Union Berlin missing Leopold Querfeld, Aljoscha Kemlein, Livan Burcu, Josip Juranovic with only 74% active goals share in starting XI
- 22 days rest since last match for FC Union Berlin
All probabilities
Result
FC Union Berlin53%
Draw26%
Elversberg21%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
FC Union Berlin or draw79%
Elversberg or draw47%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Union Berlin: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against FSV Mainz 05: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- FC Union Berlin: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Union Berlin: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Union Berlin 4-2-3-1 · Elversberg 4-2-3-1
FC Union Berlin
- 1 F. Rønnow
- 19 J. Haberer
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
- 2 F. Uduokhai
- 15 T. Rothe
- 13 A. Schafer
- 8 R. Khedira
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 11 W. Jeong
- 30 K. Imeri
- 21 T. Skarke
Elversberg
- 20 N. Kristof
- 26 L. Sirch
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 10 N. Darvich
- 29 T. Zimmerschied
- 9 N. Futkeu
Substitutes
- 31 M. Raab
- 9 L. Burcu
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 17 D. Köhn
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 6 A. Kemlein
- 7 O. Burke
- 27 M. Ljubičić
- 32 M. Gray
- 39 W. Campbell
- 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
- 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
- 3 F. Le Joncour
- 6 A. Condé
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 24 L. Schnellbacher
- 28 T. Boss
- 17 J. Schmahl
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