Match report ā
Borussia Dortmund ā Werder Bremen2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Dortmund
2.17
Total xG
2.90
Werder Bremen
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | ā1.19 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | ā0.84 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | ā0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | ā0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Julian Ryerson not in squad (0 goals, 16 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home strength and league leader form: Dortmund with 5 consecutive wins and a strong average of 2.11 home goals per game
- Critical squad impact: Bremen are missing key players due to injuries, leaving them with only 53% of their regular starting strength
- Efficient attack: Serhou Guirassy leads the frontline with 17 season goals, while Bremen's defense has already conceded 29 goals away
Risks
- Absence in Dortmund's squad: Key assist provider Julian Ryerson is missing due to injury
- Away struggles: Werder Bremen concede an average of 1.71 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Dortmund70%
Draw21%
Werder Bremen10%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw90%
Werder Bremen or draw30%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
10%
3:0
9%
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Dortmund: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Villarreal: 3 goals (80', 85', 90+3')
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 of 24 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Werder Bremen: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1 Ā· Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 14 M. Beier
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 24 D. Svensson
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 9 S. Guirassy
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 13 A. de Matos Soares
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 15 L. Reis
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 20 I. San JosƩ Cantalejo
- 17 M. GrĆ¼ll
- 10 N. FĆ¼llkrug
Substitutes
- 33 A. Meyer
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 5 R. Bensebaini
- 25 J. Veerman
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 40 S. Inacio
- 49 L. Reggiani
- 41 M. Albert
- 36 K. de Almeida
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 4 N. Stark
- 8 M. Weiser
- 30 A. Schlager
- 26 C. Itten
- 3 O. WĆ³jcik
- 23 D. Stalmach
- 38 P. Erevbenagie
- 34 D. Soylu
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