Match report →
FC Augsburg – FC Bayern München2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Augsburg
1.43
Total xG
3.67
FC Bayern München
2.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Augsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −1.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.92 | |
| Rising form (4.8 vs 3.5 season average) | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Michael Gregoritsch on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marius Wolf on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Noahkai Banks not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 38% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Konrad Laimer on the bench (3 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (2.3 vs 3.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive dominance: FC Bayern München averaged 9.4 shots on target in recent matches and currently score 4.8 goals per game
- Squad strength: FC Bayern München field 100% of their usual starting strength, whereas FC Augsburg miss key regulars
- Prediction signal: The model calculates a 55% chance for an away win and expects a high-scoring encounter
Risks
- Squad absences for FC Augsburg: Michael Gregoritsch, Marius Wolf, and Noahkai Banks are missing, leaving only 60% of goal danger available
- Away goals conceded: FC Augsburg concede an average of 2.2 goals per away match this season
- Head-to-head precedent: FC Bayern München lost the most recent direct meeting 1:2
All probabilities
Result
FC Augsburg23%
Draw22%
FC Bayern München55%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Double chance
FC Augsburg or draw45%
FC Bayern München or draw77%
No draw78%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
1:3
7%
2:2
7%
2:1
6%
2:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Augsburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Michael Olise: 5 of 7 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1 · FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1
FC Augsburg
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 35 A. Juma Bah
- 5 C. Matsima
- 2 C. Brackelmann
- 7 Seol Young-Woo
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 16 H. Behrens
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 21 A.Ibrahimovic
- 9 R. Duarte Ribeiro
FC Bayern München
- 1 M. Neuer
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 4 J. Tah
- 19 A. Davies
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 17 M. Olise
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 14 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 9 H. Kane
Substitutes
- 30 A. Kade
- 10 M. Kömür
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 20 A. Claude Maurice
- 22 N. Labrović
- 27 M. Wolf
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
- 37 T. Schnitzer
- 39 U. Ogundu
- 8 K. Suso
- 11 N. Brown
- 23 S. Boey
- 3 M. Kim
- 42 L. Karl
- 8 T. Bischof
- 21 H. Ito
- 27 K. Laimer
- 40 J. Urbig
- 7 S. Gnabry
- 39 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →