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Bundesliga10/10/2026, 01:30 PM

FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer 04 Leverkusen3 : 4

Why the model thinks so

FSV Mainz 05
1.58
Total xG
3.14
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorFSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 Leverkusen
High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)+1.31+1.31
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)−1.07
Rising form (3 vs 1.5 season average)+0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.27
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.14
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)+0.14
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.05
Jae-sung Lee not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Malik Tillman not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Strong attacking trend: FSV Mainz 05 averaged 3.0 goals per game recently, while Bayer 04 Leverkusen averaged 2.4 goals
  • High offensive threat: FSV Mainz 05 averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Bayer 04 Leverkusen with 6.6 shots on target and 60.2% possession
  • Balanced prediction model: The model calculates a close contest with 37% home win and 36% away win probability, alongside 64% for both teams to score

Risks

  • Absence of key players: Jae-sung Lee missing for FSV Mainz 05 (81% active goal share), Malik Tillman missing for Bayer 04 Leverkusen
  • Away defensive instability: Bayer 04 Leverkusen concede an average of 1.87 goals per away match
  • Weather factor: Light rain conditions at the Mewa Arena could impact pitch conditions

All probabilities

Result
FSV Mainz 0537%
Draw26%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen36%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
FSV Mainz 05 or draw64%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw63%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%

Most likely scores

1:1
12%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
3:4
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  2. FSV Mainz 05: 62% of all goals in the first half (13 of 21, last 12 games)

Lineups

FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1

FSV Mainz 05
  • 1 A. Schwolow
  • 4 S. Posch
  • 3 F. Gruber
  • 48 K. Potulski
  • 19 A. Caci
  • 5 E. Martel
  • 6 K. Sano
  • 10 N. Amiri
  • 2 P. Mwene
  • 9 P. Tietz
  • 23 S. Becker
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
  • 1 M. Flekken
  • 4 J. Quansah
  • 12 E. Tapsoba
  • 2 F. Medina
  • 3 M. GutiĂ©rrez Ortega
  • 8 R. Andrich
  • 24 A. GarcĂ­a Serrano
  • 19 M. Diaby
  • 30 I. Maza
  • 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
  • 14 P. Schick
Substitutes
  • 11 R. Königsdörffer
  • 24 S. Kawasaki
  • 21 D. Vieira da Costa
  • 15 L. Maloney
  • 16 S. Bell
  • 7 J. Lee
  • 17 B. Hollerbach
  • 40 M. Kinzig
  • 47 R. Nakuzola
  • 22 V. Boniface
  • 28 J. Blaswich
  • 17 L. VĂĄzquez Iglesias
  • 10 M. Tillman
  • 6 I. FernĂĄndez Carballo
  • 7 J. Hofmann
  • 23 N. Tella
  • 11 M. Terrier
  • 5 L. BadĂ©

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