Match report →
Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Paderborn
1.78
Total xG
3.28
VfB Stuttgart
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paderborn | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.33x league average) | −1.65 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +1.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Bilal El Khannouss on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical predictions favor Paderborn with a 44% win probability and 1.78 expected goals
- VfB Stuttgart averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Paderborn's 2.0
- Bilal El Khannouss is missing from VfB Stuttgart's starting lineup despite 4 goals and 5 assists this season
Risks
- Paderborn average only 0.75 home goals per match and recently averaged 2.0 shots on target
- VfB Stuttgart concede an average of 1.65 goals per away match
- Limited data available regarding home team player form and historical direct matches
All probabilities
Result
Paderborn43%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart31%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Double chance
Paderborn or draw69%
VfB Stuttgart or draw57%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- VfB Stuttgart: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Paderborn 3-5-2 · VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 17 L. Curda
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 40 G. Vidović
- 23 R. Obermair
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 30 S. Marino
VfB Stuttgart
- 41 D. Seimen
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 24 J. Chabot
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
- 16 A. Karazor
- 6 A. Stiller
- 10 C. Führich
- 18 J. Leweling
- 26 D. Undav
- 9 E. Demirović
Substitutes
- 9 R. Philippe
- 20 F. Götze
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 6 T. Baack
- 7 O. Meier
- 27 S. Tigges
- 11 S. Michel
- 2 R. Müller
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 21 G. Prömel
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 22 L. Assignon
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 20 L. Stergiou
- 44 L. Sauer
- 47 Y. Spalt
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