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TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
TSG Hoffenheim
1.73
Total xG
2.75
Hamburger SV
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | TSG Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.96 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.54 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.45 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Albian Hajdari not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Albert Grønbæk not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: TSG Hoffenheim's home attack (1.94 goals) meets Hamburger SV's vulnerable away defense (2.46 goals conceded per match)
- Tactical edge: Hoffenheim averaged 57% possession and 4.6 shots on target in recent matches, with calculation models indicating a 53% home win probability
- Historical dominance: TSG Hoffenheim won both previous head-to-head encounters against Hamburger SV with a total goal score of 6:2
Risks
- Away weakness: Hamburger SV concedes an average of 2.46 goals per away match
- Stuttering goal production: TSG Hoffenheim lost 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.4 goals recently (season average 1.91)
- Match rhythm: Both teams enter the match following a long pause of 20 and 21 days respectively
All probabilities
Result
TSG Hoffenheim53%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV21%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
TSG Hoffenheim or draw79%
Hamburger SV or draw47%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Hamburger SV: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 69% of all goals in the first half (11 of 16, last 11 games)
- Hamburger SV: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 31% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 16)
Lineups
TSG Hoffenheim 4-2-3-1 · Hamburger SV 3-5-1-1
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 5 O. Kabak
- 28 K. Machida
- 13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 18 W. Burger
- 20 B. Conté
- 11 F. Asllani
- 14 A. Daghim
- 19 T. Lemperle
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 24 N. Capaldo
- 33 S. Bornauw
- 17 W. Omari
- 3 D. Wolfe
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 21 N. Remberg
- 5 M. Adeline
- 37 L. Lemke
- 20 F. Ferreira Vieira
- 15 Y. Yurary Poulsen
Substitutes
- 15 V. Gendrey
- 2 R. Hranáč
- 22 A. Prass
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 10 A. Hložek
- 9 M. Moerstedt
- 37 L. Philipp
- 17 N. De Cat
- 39 M. Rots
- 38 A. Røssing-Lelesiit
- 10 M. Pherai
- 28 M. Muheim
- 18 B. Jatta
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 9 T. Moffi
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 43 S. Nandja
- 22 K. Amoako
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