Match report →
SC Freiburg – Schalke 042 : 1
Why the model thinks so
SC Freiburg
1.79
Total xG
2.91
Schalke 04
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Freiburg | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −0.93 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.74 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.41 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.41 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical edge: SC Freiburg enter as calculated favorites with a 52% win probability
- Offensive firepower: SC Freiburg averaged 3.2 goals per match recently along with 7.4 shots on target
- Form momentum: Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (WWWWD) while Schalke 04 average just 0.75 goals per game
Risks
- Limited data availability for head-to-head records and away player form metrics
- Schalke 04 averaged only 4.2 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
SC Freiburg52%
Draw26%
Schalke 0422%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
SC Freiburg or draw78%
Schalke 04 or draw48%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (10 of 30)
Lineups
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1 · Schalke 04 3-4-2-1
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 29 P. Treu
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 31 I. Matanovic
Schalke 04
- 1 L. Karius
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 25 N. Katić
- 39 M. Wöber
- 17 A. Gantenbein
- 23 S. El-Faouzi
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 8 R. Gosens
- 9 M. Sylla
- 19 K. Karaman
- 20 J. Chikwubuike Adamu
Substitutes
- 17 L. Kübler
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 6 P. Osterhage
- 30 C. Günter
- 9 L. Höler
- 24 J. Huth
- 32 V. Grifo
- 22 C. Irié
- 42 K. Goto
- 22 K. Müller
- 29 E. Dina Ebimbe
- 7 H. Hwang
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 10 E. Džeko
- 5 T. Becker
- 6 R. Schallenberg
- 33 V. Becker
- 43 M. Ayhan
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →