Match report →
RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt6 : 0
Why the model thinks so
RB Leipzig
2.43
Total xG
3.55
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.82 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.11 | |
| C. Baumgartner not in squad (13 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| F. Ouedraogo not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| B. Gruda on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Model forecast: The statistical calculation puts RB Leipzig's win probability at 65% with 2.43 expected home goals
- Defensive home edge: RB Leipzig allow just 0.95 goals per home match, while Eintracht Frankfurt concede 2.11 goals per away game
- Tactical threat: RB Leipzig averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Squad impact for RB Leipzig: C. Baumgartner, F. Ouedraogo, B. Gruda are missing, leaving only 67% of seasonal goal threat available
- Away defensive weakness: Eintracht Frankfurt concede 2.11 goals per away match
- Form inconsistency: RB Leipzig lost 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions
All probabilities
Result
RB Leipzig65%
Draw20%
Eintracht Frankfurt15%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw85%
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw35%
No draw80%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
2:1
10%
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
2:2
5%
4:1
5%
6:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- RB Leipzig: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 6 of 8 games (15 points lost)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1 · Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4-2-1
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 34 N. Collins
- 4 R. Koch
- 3 L. Brassier
- 7 A. Knauff
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
- 26 K. Kosugi
- 20 R. Doan
- 42 C. Uzun
- 9 J. Burkardt
Substitutes
- 27 T. Gomis
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 16 L. Klostermann
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 20 R. Reitz
- 10 B. Gruda
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 3 M. Esteve
- 2 E. Baum
- 6 O. Højlund
- 8 F. Chaïbi
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
- 31 P. Arrhov
- 27 M. Götze
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 22 T. Chandler
- 5 O. Galdino Fernandes
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →