Match report →
Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 050 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Schalke 04
1.39
Total xG
3.05
FSV Mainz 05
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Schalke 04 | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.81x league average) | +1.34 | |
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −1.27 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.90 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.81 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.52 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: FSV Mainz 05 recorded 2.39 xG per game in 5 games with xG data
- Defense: Schalke 04 conceded 2.08 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.2 goals per game
- Tactics: FSV Mainz 05 averaged 6 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Schalke 04 3.6 per game
Risks
- Home: Schalke 04 conceded 0 goals at home in 2 league games this season
All probabilities
Result
Schalke 0431%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0542%
Double chance
Schalke 04 or draw58%
FSV Mainz 05 or draw69%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
Lineups
Schalke 04 3-4-2-1 · FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Schalke 04
- 1 L. Karius
- 5 T. Becker
- 25 N. Katić
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 17 A. Gantenbein
- 23 S. El-Faouzi
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 8 R. Gosens
- 19 K. Karaman
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 10 E. Džeko
FSV Mainz 05
- 1 A. Schwolow
- 21 D. Vieira da Costa
- 4 S. Posch
- 48 K. Potulski
- 19 A. Caci
- 10 N. Amiri
- 6 K. Sano
- 7 J. Lee
- 2 P. Mwene
- 23 S. Becker
- 9 P. Tietz
Substitutes
- 39 M. Wöber
- 22 K. Müller
- 20 J. Chikwubuike Adamu
- 29 E. Dina Ebimbe
- 7 H. Hwang
- 13 O. Ali
- 6 R. Schallenberg
- 33 V. Becker
- 43 M. Ayhan
- 38 L. Vozar
- 5 E. Martel
- 11 R. Königsdörffer
- 24 S. Kawasaki
- 15 L. Maloney
- 16 S. Bell
- 30 S. Widmer
- 8 P. Nebel
- 17 B. Hollerbach
- 3 F. Gruber
- 40 M. Kinzig
- 47 R. Nakuzola
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