Match report →
Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Köln1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.90
Total xG
3.27
FC Köln
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Can Uzun on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ellyes Skhiri not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Köln concedes 3 goals per game away in 2 league games this season
- Attack: FC Köln averages 1.89 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.80 xG per game
Risks
- Form: Eintracht Frankfurt has 1 win in 5 league games this season, FC Köln 2 wins in 5 games
- Defense: Eintracht Frankfurt concedes 3 goals per game at home in 2 league games this season
All probabilities
Result
Eintracht Frankfurt49%
Draw25%
FC Köln26%
Double chance
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw74%
FC Köln or draw51%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 6 of 8 games (15 points lost)
- FC Köln: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 19 total)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 30% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 20)
Lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2 · FC Köln 5-3-2
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 34 N. Collins
- 4 R. Koch
- 3 L. Brassier
- 26 K. Kosugi
- 20 R. Doan
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 27 M. Götze
- 8 F. Chaïbi
- 9 J. Burkardt
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 28 S. Sebulonsen
- 2 J. Schmied
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 3 B. Sosa
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 5 T. Krauß
- 37 L. Maina
- 30 M. Bülter
- 10 S. El Mala
Substitutes
- 42 C. Uzun
- 2 E. Baum
- 29 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 31 P. Arrhov
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 22 T. Chandler
- 7 A. Knauff
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
- 37 J. Maluze
- 7 G. Waldschmidt
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 20 R. Zieler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 14 G. Mensah
- 47 M. Moore
- 11 R. Heskey
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
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