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Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
Total xG
3.32
TSG Hoffenheim
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Mönchengladbach | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +1.03 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.74 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Franck Honorat not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Adam Daghim on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Gladbach lost all 5 games of the current league season, conceding 3.6 goals per game
- Home/Away: Gladbach conceded 4 goals per game in 2 home league games, Hoffenheim scored 1.5 per game away
Risks
- Rest days: Hoffenheim with 3 days since their last match
- Form: Hoffenheim lost 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Mönchengladbach33%
Draw25%
TSG Hoffenheim41%
Double chance
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw59%
TSG Hoffenheim or draw67%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 3.3 cards per game (38 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
- TSG Hoffenheim: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-4-2 · TSG Hoffenheim 4-2-3-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 M. Nicolas
- 16 P. Sander
- 4 K. Diks
- 2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 29 J. Scally
- 47 Z. Uno
- 10 F. Neuhaus
- 36 W. Mohya
- 38 H. Bolin
- 3 I. Lidberg
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 2 R. Hranáč
- 28 K. Machida
- 39 M. Rots
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 22 A. Prass
- 20 B. Conté
- 11 F. Asllani
- 10 A. Hložek
- 19 T. Lemperle
Substitutes
- 18 S. Machino
- 25 R. Hack
- 7 K. Stöger
- 33 D. Batz
- 14 D. Hashioka
- 22 Y. Konoplia
- 5 J. Leszczyński
- 20 D. Herold
- 34 M. Nguefack
- 39 I. Danfa
- 14 A. Daghim
- 18 W. Burger
- 15 V. Gendrey
- 5 O. Kabak
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 9 M. Moerstedt
- 37 L. Philipp
- 47 V. Lässig
- 32 C. Lenz
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