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FC Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Union Berlin
1.00
Total xG
3.02
Borussia Dortmund
2.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Leopold Querfeld on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Josip Juranovic not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Borussia Dortmund is undefeated in the league this season with 4 wins from 5 games, FC Union Berlin won 1 game
- Home/Away: Dortmund scores 2 goals per game away in the league this season, Union Berlin concedes 2 per game at home
- Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the 4 previous meetings, FC Union Berlin 1
Risks
- Rest days: Borussia Dortmund with 3 days since their last match
- Attack: FC Union Berlin scores 1.67 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
FC Union Berlin17%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund60%
Double chance
FC Union Berlin or draw40%
Borussia Dortmund or draw83%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
10%
1:3
7%
0:3
7%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Union Berlin: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against FSV Mainz 05: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Borussia Dortmund: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Werder Bremen: 2 goals (80', 85')
- Borussia Dortmund: 6 of 10 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
Lineups
FC Union Berlin 4-2-3-1 · Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
FC Union Berlin
- 1 F. Rønnow
- 19 J. Haberer
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
- 2 F. Uduokhai
- 15 T. Rothe
- 13 A. Schafer
- 8 R. Khedira
- 11 W. Jeong
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 30 K. Imeri
- 21 T. Skarke
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 24 D. Svensson
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 14 M. Beier
- 9 S. Guirassy
Substitutes
- 31 M. Raab
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 17 D. Köhn
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 6 A. Kemlein
- 27 M. Ljubičić
- 29 E. Latte Lath
- 49 L. Güther
- 32 M. Gray
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 33 A. Meyer
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 5 R. Bensebaini
- 25 J. Veerman
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 41 M. Albert
- 36 K. de Almeida
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