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Bayer 04 Leverkusen – SC Freiburg2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.33
Total xG
3.51
SC Freiburg
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.93 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Yuito Suzuki not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored 3 goals per match in 2 home league games and conceded zero
- Shots: Bayer 04 Leverkusen averaged 7.2 shots on target and 20.6 total shots per match over their last 5 games
- Head-to-head: Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2 of the 4 meetings against SC Freiburg, with 2 draws
Risks
- Form: SC Freiburg remained undefeated in their last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw
- Rest days: Bayer 04 Leverkusen with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen62%
Draw21%
SC Freiburg17%
Double chance
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw83%
SC Freiburg or draw38%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
2:1
10%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Keisuke Goto: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1 · SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1 M. Flekken
- 4 J. Quansah
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 2 F. Medina
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 24 A. García Serrano
- 6 I. Fernández Carballo
- 19 M. Diaby
- 30 I. Maza
- 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
- 14 P. Schick
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 29 P. Treu
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 42 K. Goto
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 31 I. Matanovic
Substitutes
- 22 V. Boniface
- 28 J. Blaswich
- 17 L. Vázquez Iglesias
- 10 M. Tillman
- 8 R. Andrich
- 7 J. Hofmann
- 23 N. Tella
- 5 L. Badé
- 15 T. Oermann
- 17 L. Kübler
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 6 P. Osterhage
- 30 C. Günter
- 9 L. Höler
- 21 F. Müller
- 32 V. Grifo
- 22 C. Irié
- 20 R. Yamamoto
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