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FC Bayern München – RB Leipzig6 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Bayern München
3.42
Total xG
4.69
RB Leipzig
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Bayern München | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.15 | +1.15 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −1.07 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.69 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Alphonso Davies on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ridle Baku on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Bayern average 6 goals per game at home in the league this season, Leipzig concede 2.5 per game away
- Head-to-head: Bayern won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Leipzig, with 1 draw and no losses
- Shots on target: Bayern averaged 10.2 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Leipzig 6 per game
Risks
- Personnel: Bayern without M. Neuer, who started in 3 of the last 5 games
- Attack: Leipzig average 3 goals per game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
FC Bayern München77%
Draw13%
RB Leipzig10%
Double chance
FC Bayern München or draw90%
RB Leipzig or draw23%
No draw87%
Goals
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Over 3.569%
Under 3.531%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
3:1
8%
2:1
7%
4:1
7%
3:0
6%
4:0
5%
6:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- RB Leipzig: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Luis Díaz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: 71% of all goals in the second half (27 of 38, last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · RB Leipzig 4-5-1
FC Bayern München
- 40 J. Urbig
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 3 M. Kim
- 11 N. Brown
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 17 M. Olise
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 14 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 9 H. Kane
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 16 L. Klostermann
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 10 B. Gruda
- 20 R. Reitz
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 28 C. Nkunku
Substitutes
- 23 S. Boey
- 42 L. Karl
- 8 T. Bischof
- 26 S. Ulreich
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 21 H. Ito
- 1 M. Neuer
- 19 A. Davies
- 7 S. Gnabry
- 4 J. Tah
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
- 27 T. Gomis
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 17 R. Baku
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 3 M. Esteve
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